Yesterday’s notable loss in the race to succeed Boris Johnson, British Conservative leader and Prime Minster, was a significant one. Ben Wallace, the Defense Minister, confirmed that he would not be contesting in the primaries. He is the preferred candidate of the party’s base and has gained respect and visibility through his handling of the conflict in Ukraine. Wallace voted against Brexit in the 2016 referendum. This factor left him behind among his parliamentary peers in this contest where the drift in the independent trajectory and relationship of the United Kingdom with the European Union are at stake.
The initial screening of candidates for this election is done by the 358 members of the parliamentary group. They did so after losing trust in their bosses and prime ministers’ integrity and leadership. They will vote as many times necessary until there are two finalists, on which the military will decide. Both conservative electorates are united by the desire to preserve ‘Brexit,’ which they both regard as Johnson’s great legacy.
The outgoing president of ’tory’ won a large majority in the 2019 legislative election – now down to 73 seats. He used the slogan Get Brexit done’ (Let’s execute ‘Brexit) which was accepted as a given a year later. In the days and weeks ahead, the candidates who will replace him will have the chance to share their vision for the next phase of the path that is free from EU ties. All candidates will reject the return to the community bloc. This is true even for former Europeanists like Jeremy Hunt who has not yet declared his interest in joining the arena.
Johnson expelled those who were in favor of good relations with the EU. Johnson expelled 21 members of the parliamentary group that tried to stop a withdrawal without an accord and transformed some benches into ‘Brexiteras,’ with these and other controversial actions. According to Tim Bale (Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London), only Conservatives remain in Westminster who are willing to respect the “will of the people”.
Grant Shapps (transport minister) is an example of a convert to anti-EU ideology. Six months after the historic referendum, he stated that he had voted to stay but that he has embraced the country’s new direction and is optimistic about the future. His moderate colleagues may support him in the first round of vote, which could be as early as next week.
Ultra-Eurosceptics are ready to stop the rise of candidates who discredit their beliefs in defense of national sovereignty. Nearly one hundred members of the ERG (EU Research Group), will use the Northern Ireland protocol as a litmus test for their support for the candidates for leadership. This essential section of the Withdrawal Agreement must be repealed by the group, even if it means declaring war on Brussels.
Professor John Curtice is an expert in opinion studies and underlines the gap between conservatives’ horizons and the general population. Some MPs seek to maximize the benefits of Brexit by allowing the Brussels bloc to be more liberal in their regulations. The EU’s protection of the environment and consumers is highly valued by the electorate, writes an academic in ‘The Times.
Another consequence of “Brexit” is the uncertainty between closing borders to community workers, and the shortage of labor that is threatening the British economy during this period of global crisis. Michael Heseltine is a former conservative minister who was a recalcitrant pro Europeanan. He believes that Johnson’s successor would establish a “more positive relation” with the EU.
The Conservative affiliate will be the final vote between the two candidates. He is more open to opposing the European club than the other candidate. The party board doesn’t give any details about the militancy which would have increased in the past year because of Johnson’s popular hook, which has an estimated 200,000 members. According to academic studies, it is a small segment of the population with an average age 60 years. It consists mainly of men of white ethnicity, who are residents of the south.
A YouGov survey has shown that 42% of members who have the right to vote in primaries will consider whether the candidate voted for exiting the EU. However, only 3% will be positive if he chose permanence. Instead, his three priorities for choosing the new leader or prime minister will be to ensure that he is competent, can unify the party, and has a greater chance of winning next year’s general election. Expect the results of the election to be announced in September or October.
