Italians are now asking themselves not whether Mario Draghi’s government is going to fall, but when. It seems that the Executive in Rome is finding it increasingly difficult to speed up the legislative process, which will end naturally in the first month of 2023, sixteen months after the formation of the heterogeneous coalition government made up of nine parties. Draghi has felt the last jolt since the internal crisis experienced by the 5 Star Movement, (M5E), which was the largest political force in Parliament, until last week it was broken by a split by Luigi di Maio, Minister of Foreign Affairs. The main reason for the break is Giuseppe Conte (president of the M5E), who wanted to stop the shipment of weapons from Ukraine. This is something Draghi, Di Maio, and others do not accept.
Rumours that Draghi asked M5E founder Beppe to remove Conte due to his discomfort arose. Speculations arose about the possibility of Draghi’s departure from the coalition government. The fact that the prime Minister returned to Rome Wednesday night, after having left the NATO summit in Madrid supported this interpretation. Draghi was able to calm down the situation this Thursday. He assured the continuity of Executive and explained that the return of the Italian capital was already planned. This was because he wanted to take part in the Council of Ministers, in which the extension of aid has been approved families to face the rise in energy prices.
The former president of European Central Bank said that “the Government is not at danger” and that he was optimistic about the likelihood that the Cabinet he heads will complete the legislative. Draghi also denied asking Grillo for Conte’s heads and insists that he continues to have an open dialogue. He has praised and thanked Grillo’s contribution to the Executive.
“From the beginning, I stated that this government couldn’t be done without M5E, and that it has made a significant contribution in these months. It will surely continue to do so,” said the prime minister. He was not content with the political force that withdrew its support from the government coalition, and he only offered foreign support to Parliament. Analysts believe that Conte might have thought of this option to occupy a space in opposition to the government and then try to return to the polls. According to the latest polls, the M5E has a lower than 7% vote intention after Di Maio’s split, which is almost five times the result in the 2018 general elections.
Although Draghi managed to channel the crisis with Conte, expectations for the next months are not too optimistic. The possibility of frictions with M5E resurfacing is compounded by the growing discomfort of the League within the government coalition. The conservative party of Matteo Salvini, led by Matteo Salvini, is desperate about the pace at which the Brothers of Italy (the political force of Giorgia Melonsi), is eating away at Draghi’s Executive.
Political commentators think that Salvini could pull the League out of the government coalition following the summer holidays. It is possible that the fracture can be completed before two bills, one regarding legalization of marijuana and another concerning the grant of nationality to children of immigrant students who have been living in the country for five or more years, are passed. Both are supported by the M5E as well as the Democratic Party, the main center left formation.
In the unlikely event that Conte and Salvini decide to end the Government, Draghi made it clear that he would not be willing to lead a new Executive to govern the remainder of the legislature, even if he received enough support. Italy would be forced to hold early elections.
