Bremen was for the SPD to a safe Bank for 70 years. The past is the past. The only headwind from Federal policy? No, the Disaster in the former stronghold, also has a lot to do with Bremen. An analysis on the Basis of the Numbers of infratest dimap.
The poor performance of the SPD in Bremen has also to do with the General bad mood there. Bremen, for two decades one of the Federal States with a particularly large economic problems. According to bad, the Bremen is the situation also for a long time. But this time, this bad mood is particularly true of the SPD, as a glance at the polls shows, the infratest dimap conducted on behalf of the ARD. Why?
in addition to the economic situation, the Bremen, to evaluate this time, something else very negative: the work of The previous Senate, as the state government of Bremen is called. Only 34 percent of respondents say that they are with the work. Thus, Bremen is – together with Berlin – in Germany. For comparison: In the state of Baden-Württemberg, this Satisfaction was before the last state election at 70 percent.
Although addressed this criticism in principle of both Senate parties. However, the view of the Detail makes it clear that The SPD is rated significantly more negative than the Green. Especially the Green values your satisfaction in comparison to the election in 2015 to eleven percentage points to improve, which the SPD have deteriorated by 19 points.
there is No “father of the country bonus” for the SPD
points compared to previous elections in Bremen, the SPD was able to this time with your candidates, Carsten Sieling. To him, it is not successful, a “father image” to build up. Only 49 percent say he is a good mayor. Its predecessors, which were made in all of the Bremen mayor since 1946, the SPD, came to quite different values: Jens Böhrnsen to 57 percent, Henning Scherf even at 72 percent, despite your government’s times in Bremen and in part economically worse standing than it is today.
And also in comparison with the heads of government of other provinces Sieling is extremely bad. Asked, whether it is with his work in General, satisfied, say, with only 41 per cent “Yes”. For comparison: The Green Winfried Kretschmann came before the election in Baden-Württemberg in the year 2016 with an impressive 84 percent. And even the Prime Minister of Bavaria, Markus Söder, the state in the run-up to the state election there in the past year, massive criticism, came at least 51 percent.
to make matters worse, the Federal policy is added to the SPD in Bremen, of course, against the wind. The Green in turn benefit from the Federal political tailwind. This explains in good part why the two government parties – cut, despite the overall poor Senate assessment – so different. The SPD ends up at a historic Low, the Green will win easily – but remain significantly lower your Bremen all-time high of 2011. At that time, they came to 22.5 percent.
The theme of justice, the left party on the
The left party will win this time and get probably a lot of voters from the social Democrats. This should also have something to do with it, that the SPD has lost one of its core themes in the perception of the voters of expertise. Only 30 percent say that it is the party that can provide best for social justice – eleven percentage points less than in the election in 2015. The left party has, however, put seven points and is 24 per cent, only just behind the SPD.
your Nimbus as a “protest party” loses the Left, by the way, more and more. Four years ago, 41 percent of Left-voters said their voting decision was more likely made out of frustration about other parties than out of Conviction of the left party. This time, it was only 27 percent.
CDU is benefiting from the weakness of the SPD
And as the CDU is measured, it could create, according to forecasts, in Bremen, to oust the SPD from square 1? You benefited apparently more from the weakness of the SPD than from her own strength. Because only about a third of the Bremen is convinced that a CDU-led Senate could solve the problems of the Federal state better than Red-Green. True Conviction looks different, historically, this value for the Bremen CDU-conditions, but it is a very good.
The CDU top candidate Carsten Meyer-Heder, an IT entrepreneur who has decided only a year ago for a change in the policy for Bremer conditions – very good. If a direct election of the mayor would be possible, would, after all, 36 percent for him to decide – only six percentage points less than for incumbent Sieling.
SPD-incumbent Sieling will Meyer of Bremen, although in a rather “soft” factors – like “sympathetic” or “is a citizen of a rating closer to” better than CDU-Challenger-Heder. But when it comes to the “hard” question, who can modernize Bremen, better, leads, Meyer-Heder clear Sieling 41 to 26 percent.
AfD is in Bremen competition
And how is it that the AfD is performing compared with your result at the Bundestag election in 2017 or the current European election in Bremen is rather weak? Here also plays a role, that she is in Bremen, the only party that binds a lot of protest voters. With BIW, there is a competitor who is especially in the part of the country Bremerhaven strong.
The subject “Protest” has played in the electorate of the AfD, however, a less important role than four years ago. Although more than half of the AfD-voters with 54 percent is still your cross, because they were convinced of the content of the right-wing populists, but rather out of disappointment with other parties. However, this value is decreased in comparison to 2015 clear to twelve points.
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