The latest polls released last week put Meloni’s post-fascist formation, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), at over 24%, almost twice as much as Salvini’s League.
Such a result on election day would allow the dashing quadra to claim the post of Prime Minister and set the course for their coalition, which also includes Forza Italia (FI, liberal right) of former head of government Silvio Berlusconi.
For Salvini, propelled to power after winning 17% of the vote in the 2018 legislative elections then 34% in the European elections the following year, the potion would be bitter.
A key question will be whether the leader of the League, a former Deputy Prime Minister, will be able to agree to be a second knife or to play the troublemaker on themes — the war in Ukraine, for example — on which he is in disagreement with Meloni.
– Arrogance –
From his harsh criticism of the European Union, Muslims and Roma, his assumed Catholicism – he proudly wears a cross around his neck – to his shirtless exhibitions on the beach, Salvini, 49, has cultivated an image of man of the people.
He has managed to turn his once breakaway party — previously known as the Northern League — into a national force, fueled by anger at Brussels and the tens of thousands of migrants who land on Italian shores each year.
Yet in recent years he has been eclipsed by Meloni, who shares his Euroscepticism and “Italians first” creed but, despite his party’s neo-fascist roots, wants to present Italy’s European partners with a face smooth as a “Christian mother” while keeping her outspokenness.
“Salvini made serious mistakes, which tarnished his image”, analysis for AFP Lorenzo De Sio, professor of political science at the Luiss University of Rome.
He is thus criticized for his “arrogance” when he tried to bring down his coalition government in 2019, in the hope of forcing new elections after his large victory in the European elections, only to find himself in the opposition.
A key factor in Meloni’s rise was also his decision to stay out of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s grand coalition formed in February 2021. Fratelli d’Italia was the only party not to join, granting him status of outsider who attracted many disgruntled voters.
“Meloni was free to vote with the government whenever she wanted, for example on Ukraine, but at the same time to attack the government to preserve her identity,” according to De Sio.
– Any problems ahead? –
Eurosceptic, FdI no longer demands an exit from the single currency, and Giorgia Meloni strongly supported the European bloc’s sanctions against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
By contrast, Salvini — a longtime supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin — criticized the sanctions, saying they hurt Europe more than Russia, by causing energy prices to spike.
The League chief has called for more help for households and businesses to lessen the impact of rising electricity and gas bills, even if it means adding to Italy’s already huge debt .
Meloni, more cautious, assured that she would pursue a responsible budgetary policy.
How they will manage these differences — with those they have with Berlusconi and his more pro-European, centrist and right-wing FI party, which stands at around 8% in the polls — will probably depend on the balance of power after voting.
“Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi will be tough partners in the coalition, desperate to regain visibility after a (likely) election day defeat, highlighting political differences,” predicts Wolfango Piccoli of the consultancy Teneo.
Lorenzo De Sio notes, however, that if Salvini had something to gain by bringing down the government in 2019, that’s not the case today. And that the Italian right has shown itself in the past to be able to put its disputes on hold in order to stay in power.
“A pragmatic approach prevails, in which everyone prefers to keep their wallets, with all the advantages that flow from it”, he underlines.
