After Venezuela’s Parliament-in-chief Juan Guaido has declared on Wednesday in front of hundreds of thousands of protesters to the interim President, open fighting in the country erupted. Opponents and supporters of the regime of Nicolas Maduro are also abroad, where the West and Russia to take a massive party and threats.
who is fighting against Who?
On the one hand, the bourgeois Opposition, from social Democrats to right-wing conservative. At one time it was the Opposition managed to forge a broad Alliance, the table of Democratic unity (MUD). The MUD, however, is broken in the last two years, by personal rivalries and strategic differences. The new President Juan Guaido, a 35-year-old former student leader, has given the Opposition, now re-United, her hope and a clear direction.
On the other hand, the government is under Nicolas Maduro. He has gathered in the last few years in a purge of loyal followers, and those deprived of power, which criticized him. They are made for the mismanagement that led to the escape of millions of people in neighboring countries. Maduro’s main the military on the one hand, he has left the control of the economy, the oil business, but also the financial world, and a lucrative Import-Export businesses are based. A key figure is defense Minister Vladimir Padrino. Other support is Cuba, not only for Maduro’s personal security guard, but also to strategic policy decisions and advises. A third support is the armed militia.
Why are the military and security forces on Maduro’s side?
Because they reap economic advantages. Generals now control the Export and import transactions, the petroleum, the allocation of foreign Currency, the customs, the occurrence of gold, the drug trade. They are connected to mafia-like groups, mainly from Colombia. The lower ranks, you leave it, the road blocks to build up, which then bribes the payment of which, in the smuggling of any Goods. Socialism is no longer, Venezuela is today is a mafia state.
How dangerous for the world situation?
It is the acute danger that the state could extend the crisis to an international conflict similar to that in Syria. The greatest pressure on the Land comes from the United States. Only a few minutes after Guaido had to call to the President, he was recognized by Washington. It is Canada and South American countries followed suit. The Federal government claimed on Thursday, as well as the EU elections, recognized the new interim President. By contrast, Russia and Turkey, Maduro pledged their support. Moscow has supported the government in Caracas in the last few years, with billions, and in return the Russian state to have a group Rosneft investments in the Oil secured. The Russian foreign Ministry warned U.S. President Donald Trump in front of a military intervention. Moscow responded to a Statement by trump, who had said on the issue, according to a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, all options are on the table. Subsequently, Venezuela broke off diplomatic relations with the United States. US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo stated that he was not going to pull off the diplomatic staff. “The United States does not recognize the Maduro Regime as the government of Venezuela,” said Pompeo. Consequently, the former President “is not empowered to break off diplomatic relations or U.S. diplomats have to explain” to unwanted people. The question is, what happens if Maduro should take action against US diplomats.
China responded in the conflict, more subdued, and spoke out against outside interference and against sanctions.
What role will the USA play?
The US government has held for a long time in Venezuela. With US President Donald Trump has changed. There opinion is that Venezuela could be at the bridge head of a Chinese, Russian or Arab Infiltration in Latin America. Since then, the USA work actively on a regime change in Venezuela. For one, they have imposed sanctions against high-ranking members of the government, and on the other they exert pressure on countries in Central America and the Caribbean, so that they dissociate from Venezuela.
what are the chances of the Opposition?
The Opposition has for the first time in a long Time in this power struggle with Maduro is a clear strategic advantage. The economic situation is so disastrous that the population of the regime is tired, and this pressure will continue or increase. However, the outcome of this crisis, and how bloody the Whole thing is, the skill of the leader of the opposition. So, if you can manage to drive a wedge between Maduro and the military.
How it came to this conflict?
Maduro’s Mentor, Hugo Chavez won in 1998, because the Venezuelans of the corruption of the old parties were tired and on a distribution of the oil wealth, hoped. The has managed to Chavez thanks to the boom of the oil prices in the first instance. But after the Opposition had tried to push him with a strike and a coup out of office, he focused on power. He mainly trusted the military, which gained more and more influence. In the military, a gigantic corruption spread. It All exploded when, after Chavez’s death, the oil prices fell. Maduro had never had the popular support of Chavez.
