The summer of 2018 was unusual. The prolonged heat affected not just a Region, but many at the same time. This has only been due to man-made climate change is possible, conclude Researchers by Sonia Seneviratne of ETH Zurich from observational and model data. The results presented ETH-Zurich climate researcher Martha bird on Tuesday at the General Assembly of the European Geoscience Union (EGU) in Vienna.
To find out how large could develop a flat heat waves in the context of climate change, took the researchers to observation data from the years 1958 to 2018 and simulations. It focused in particular on the key areas for the agriculture and densely populated regions, such as the ETH announced on Tuesday.
17 countries, at the same time
affected showed The analysis of the summer of 2018, and that between may and July, 22 percent of the populated and agricultural area of the Northern hemisphere experienced extremely high temperatures. At least 17 countries were affected. Such large-scale heat waves, was the first in 2010, then again in 2012, and 2018. The observation data show that there was previously, however, no heat waves, which covered such large areas at the same time.
And this is only the beginning, as the model calculations, the researchers show. With the climate warming, the large-area heat extremes are becoming more likely. In the case of a global warming of 2 degrees Celsius, a so large-scale heat wave in the summer of 2018 could be every year, wrote the ETH.
Currently, the climate warming is already around 1 degree compared to the pre-industrial time and the consequences are already evident, let Seneviratne quote.
Mutual aid is difficult
The development of bird referred to as alarming: “If, in the future, more and more land in agricultural key regions and densely populated regions are simultaneously affected by heat, this can have serious consequences.” Fought at the same time, several countries with such natural disasters, is not a mutual aid possible, stressed Seneviratne in accordance with the ETH-communication. As an example, she cited the forest fires 2018 in Sweden: at that Time, several countries have can with infrastructure for fire-fighting help. Several Nations, however, would be at the same time of large forest fires affected, could you assist other affected countries.
Also, agricultural yields could collapse over a large area and food prices are massively more expensive. This was already evident in 2010, as a heat wave in Russia and the Ukraine, the wheat production of break left, and the wheat prices increased. In Pakistan, which is heavily dependent on wheat from Russia, prices rose by 16 percent.
large-scale extreme events that could ultimately threaten the food supply in Switzerland, as Seneviratne. (sda/red)
Created: 09.04.2019, 15:47 PM
