The favorites: Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard The big difference with 2022 is that a match is expected between the winner of the Grande Boucle 2022 and his runner-up. Last year, Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) seemed set to win, with the carelessness of youth, a third consecutive title. Before being surprised and taken aback by the collective strength of the Jumbo-Visma team. On the strength of this painful experience, the talented Slovenian will live, at the age of 24, his 4th Tour (1st in 2020 and 2021, 2nd in 2022; 9 stage victories, 21 days in yellow). With the ambition to finish in yellow. His fantastic spring (with victories in the Tour of Flanders, the Amstel Gold Race and the Flèche Wallonne) was thwarted by a scaphoid fracture in his left hand during Liège-Bastogne. A break that may have allowed him to catch his breath, to come back with freshness and a tenfold desire. Trapped last year, better surrounded, the Slovenian seems, through the risky game of predictions, to have a (very) slight advantage over his great rival Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo Visma) who will live his 3rd Round (2nd in 2021, 1st in 2022; 2 stage wins; 11 days in yellow) and can build on his victory in 2022, the kind of experience that changes a career forever. The route of the Tour will require the duo, like all contenders, to be immediately in action. There will be no observation stage. The first seconds lost could weigh heavily.
The outsiders: Egan Bernal, David Gaudu, Richard Carapaz, Mikel Landa. The Colombian Egan Bernal (Ineos), winner of the 2019 Tour, is making his comeback on the Grande Boucle. Victim of a terrible accident in January 2021, he gradually found the very high level. He comes out of a consistent Critérium du Dauphiné (12th in the final general classification) which followed a promising Tour de Romandie (8th). Difficult to know how far it can go but it will be to be followed carefully. David Gaudu (4th in 2022) endorsed Marc Madiot’s ambition to stand on the podium on the Champs-Élysées. The step is high, he knows it. Convincing on Paris-Nice (2nd between Pogacar and Vingegaard), the Breton climber passed next to Dauphiné (30th). He will be able to rely on a dedicated team. A newcomer to EF Education, Ecuadorian Richard Carapaz, Olympic champion (3rd in the 2021 Tour) has experience of major events. Mikel Landa (4th in the Tour 2017 and 2020; 3rd in the Giro 2015 and 2022), often placed, could be carried by the fervor of the Basque Country.
Our bet: Jai HindleyAustralian Jai Hindley (27; Bora-Hansgrohe), winner of the Giro 2022, has just finished 4th in the Critérium du Dauphiné. He will discover the Tour. With beginner’s luck?
Favorite: Wout van Aert It’s hard to imagine Wout van Aert without the green jersey in Paris. The Belgian from the Jumbo Visma team knows how to do everything. Winner of three stages last year, he had flown over the debates by even allowing himself to accompany Vingegaard in the mountains. The only downside, his start to the season was not successful despite several podiums: 2nd at Ghent-Wevelgem and 3rd at Paris-Roubaix and Milan San Remo.
The Underdogs: Jasper Philipsen, Fabio Jakobsen and Dylan GroenwengenJapser Philipsen, Team Alpecin-Deceuninck’s “mister disaster” (because he has a reputation for being very airheaded) will be in on the battle. It remains to be seen whether he will have free rein because his team could be tempted to play the Mathieu van Der Poel card. The Belgian seems more focused on arriving in Paris after two retirements than on the green jersey? Fabio Jakobsen (Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl) will often be well placed to win if he is well surrounded. Dylan Groenewegen with the BikeExchange Jayco team will be aiming for a sixth stage victory on the Grande Boucle, but the indigestible menu of the mountain this year could exhaust him.
Our bet: Biniam Girmay What if Biniam Girmay (Intermarché) was the surprise of the year in the ranks of sprinters? The 23-year-old Eritrean recently distinguished himself by winning the Tour de Suisse (June 12). On Friday, he confirmed that he was aiming for a stage victory. The first rider from black Africa to win a Classic (Ghent-Wevelgem) will experience the Grande Boucle for the first time.
The favourites: Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej PogacarThe menu is extensive, 30 passes (records of the genre; 7 more than in 2022), the figures varied with 5 massifs to climb. The last 6 winners of the polka dot jersey will depart from Bilbao (Rafal Majka, Warren Barguil, Romain Bardet, Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard). Winner of the Tour last year, winner of the mountain classification, Jonas Vingegaard is a natural candidate for the polka dot jersey. Just like his great rival Tadej Pogacar.
The outsiders: Thibaut Pinot, Tom Pidcock, Romain Bardet, Giulio Ciccone8 mountain stages and 4 summit finishes (Cauterets-Cambasque, Puy de Dôme, Grand Colombier and Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc) are on the menu. Something to inspire Thibaut Pinot who is aiming for a capital exit, the Briton Tom Pidcock (Ineos), winner of the Alpe d’Huez stage last year, or Romain Bardet (DSM), a skilful strategist, capable of aiming for a choice place in the general classification, a prestigious stage victory or a new polka dot jersey, one of the favorite jerseys of the French public (ranking won 7 times by Richard Virenque; two for Laurent Jalabert, one for Thomas Voeckler). The Italian Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), wearing the yellow jersey for two days in 2019, dreams of a first stage victory on the Tour and the polka dot jersey.
Our bet: Julian Alaphilippe In 2018, the year of his first Tour success, Julian Alaphilippe wore the polka dot jersey for 12 days. The beginning of a strong relationship with the spectators. The Soudal-Quick Step training puncher could, once again, shine in the exercise.
Mathieu Van der Poel did not make the green jersey a fixation. The grandson of Raymond Poulidor, winner of Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix this year, owes us revenge after a 2022 edition that turned into a nightmare. The fiery Warren Barguil (Arkea Samsic) made the risky bet to chain Giro and Tour de France. He is eyeing the polka dot jersey but we imagine him to shine more in a long breakaway on uneven ground. Slovak Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies) will compete in his last Tour de France at the age of 33. Even if he had poorly prepared for the race by being sentenced for having driven in a state of intoxication on May 12 in Monaco (1.46 mg / l), the sevenfold green jersey dreams of a final victorious sprint before shooting his reverence. Will Valentin Madouas feel his wings grow after being crowned French champion (road race) a week ago? The Breton has the means to play a Top 10 but he must first put himself at the service of his leader David Gaudu, which could curb his ambitions. The AG2R-Citroën team is counting on the versatile Benoît Cosnefroy and Aurélien Paret-Peintre, very prominent at the Giro, to seek a stage victory which would make Vincent Lavenu’s team happy. Identical profile for Guillaume Martin forced to retire last year due to a positive Covid test on the morning of the 9th stage. Christophe Laporte, the only French stage winner last year, will first have to support Vingegaard. But he has already proven that he could be a credible one-day plan B for the Jumbo-Visma.
