Polls and successive rallies have only confirmed the considerable lead of the 47-year-old foreign minister over the 42-year-old former finance minister, within the Conservative Party, whose members must vote, by post or internet, before 4:00 p.m. GMT.
The result will be announced Monday at midday and barring a dramatic change, Liz Truss will become the fourth British Prime Minister on Tuesday since the Brexit referendum, the third woman in this post after Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May.
She will succeed Boris Johnson, forced to resign in early July by the accumulation of scandals. And will be eagerly awaited to respond urgently to soaring electricity bills which are strangling households, schools, hospitals and businesses, leading to social conflicts like never since the Thatcher years (1979-1990).
“It will be a very, very big surprise if she does not win”, explains to AFP John Curtice, political scientist at the University of Strathclyde, noting “the accumulated lead in the polls” and the ability of the minister to “seduce politically conservative adherents and articulate a clear message for them”.
A seasoned politician who has been holding ministerial posts for 10 years, Liz Truss has seduced the base by promising massive tax cuts and adopting a very tough tone against the unions. This has earned her comparison to Margaret Thatcher, an icon of conservatism, although her rival is working to dispute her legacy by posing as a champion of budgetary prudence.
Rishi Sunak, the grandson of Indian immigrants who would become the country’s first non-white prime minister if he were to surprise, has struggled to shed his image as a wealthy technocrat, lecturer and traitor who precipitated the downfall of Boris Johnson by slamming the door of the government in early July.
The latter remains regretted by part of the base, these 160,000 to 200,000 members, or 0.3% of the population, – more male, older and white than the average – who will decide on the Prime Minister.
The party has never revealed their exact number, to the point that a news site is suing it to demand more transparency.
– Act fast –
On Tuesday, Boris Johnson will hand in his resignation to Elizabeth II at her summer residence at Balmoral in Scotland, a first for the 96-year-old sovereign who has trouble getting around and will not make the trip to London.
His successor will follow to become the 15th head of government in the monarch’s 70-year reign, before returning to London to deliver his first speech outside 10 Downing Street, form his government and face opposition leader Keir Starmer on Wednesday. for the first time in Parliament.
The task promises to be difficult with a majority divided by scandals and a country plagued by the desire for independence in Scotland and post-Brexit tensions in Northern Ireland.
But the pressure will be considerable to act quickly. The cost of living crisis has taken a dramatic turn, with the announcement of an 80% rise in household energy bills in October which could push inflation, already at more than 10%, up to 22% according to the most alarmist forecasts.
From transport to postal workers, dockers and lawyers, the strikes continue to spread.
Liz Truss promised massive tax cuts rather than direct aid and said she wanted to limit the right to strike.
In the Sun Thursday, she promised despite everything “immediate support” for households in difficulty but gave no details and canceled at the last minute this week a promised interview with the BBC.
Boris Johnson, he was conspicuous by his absence during the summer, going on vacation to Slovenia and then to Greece. He refused to rule out a return to politics and his presence looks cumbersome. Thursday, he promised his “full support” to whoever will replace him: “And for the rest, life goes on”.
