On the front line, the Latvians have already run out of Russian gas since the end of July, and know what to expect for the next few months. “The energy prices are so exorbitant that we have installed our own water heater, it is cheaper to use than using collective hot water”, says Juons Ratiniks, resident of the small town of Rezekne, not far from the Russian border.
This retired border guard warns “politicians” that he is waiting for help to pay his next rising bills, otherwise “it will heat up for them!”
Like Latvia, the Russian gas tap is already cut for Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland. Among the others, flows to Europe are drying up: they were down around 70% in July over one year, according to several experts interviewed by AFP.
In the capitals of the continent, the prospect of cold radiators or shutdown factories haunts governments, who know that Vladimir Putin uses energy weapons strategically. Drops in deliveries have caused the price of gas to soar and, in its wake, of electricity, since many thermal power stations run on gas. Oil also rose before a recent ebb, however.
The war triggered the “first real global energy crisis in history”, judge Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). And Europe is “at the epicenter of the turmoil”.
Gas is so crucial – especially in highly dependent countries like Germany for its heavy industry – that it is exempt from European sanctions, unlike coal (total embargo) and oil (gradual embargo).
– “Thermostat operation” –
Already drastically reduced flows in the all-important Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany “will fluctuate between zero and 20% of capacity over the coming months, leading to a recession in Europe in the winter of 2022/23”, predicts Matt Oxenford , from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
In the event of a shortage, the authorities will cut off the supply in priority to businesses: in France as in Germany, the governments are in the process of choosing which will be sacrificed first.
But consumers who heat or cook with gas are also called upon to save energy, while Brussels is asking the 27 member countries to reduce their gas consumption by 15%.
Italy launched a “thermostat operation” in the spring to lower the heating and reduce the air conditioning in schools and administrations. Initiative imitated by Spain and Germany.
In the latter country, a campaign has been launched to lower the air conditioning, favor public transport or buy a shower head that costs less water. Many cities have lowered the water temperature of swimming pools or urban lighting.
“I save energy,” explains Annette Kapaon, a 70-year-old retiree met in Berlin. “I only heat the room where I spend time, in the others it’s just so that nothing freezes”.
– Coal and LNG –
France has blocked regulated gas prices for individuals, but in Germany, household bills will increase by several hundred euros per year.
Faced with the difficult winter ahead, the consumer advice center in North Rhine-Westphalia has never been so busy in more than 40 years of history. “There will be many households that will not be able to pay,” worries its spokesperson Udo Sieverding.
Many are inquiring about installing solar panels, he said. But coal sellers are also facing a rush.
France, for its part, is reviving the “gaspi hunt” of the 1970s: stores that use air conditioning are asked to keep their doors closed.
It is also the race to find alternative energy sources such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) or coal, which is very polluting.
France has therefore temporarily given up on closing a coal-fired power station and wants to install a new floating LNG terminal, a decision decried by environmentalists.
