After an election day that will determine the fate of Andalusians for the next four years or until the end of this legislative session, the polls close. Juanma Moreno and the PP were the favorites to win the most seats, according to all previous surveys. However, experts in Spanish politics often point out that Andalusian elections leave surprises and citizens behave differently. This is quite different from previous surveys.
GAD3 released the latest survey for CSRTV at 8:00 PM this Sunday. GAD3 conducted between June 3rd and 18 9,200 interviews to determine the electoral results. 11 questions were short, 2 control.
According to the poll Juanma Moreno would win an absolute majority, and would therefore not need to agree to form government. According to GAD3’s electoral survey for RTVE/Forta, the Popular Party would win regional elections with an absolute majority of 58-61 deputies. The PSOE would have its worst ever result with 26-30 seats.
According to the survey, Vox would be third with 13-15 deputies. Next would be Por Andalucia coalition -which IU and Podemos along with other leftist forces – with four to five seats. Adelante Andalucia would have three seats. Ciudadanos would remain out of the Andalusian parliament with 2.4%.
The left loses support, so the two coalitions that remain are able to add their results well below 2018’s. Adelante Andalucia had 17 seats in 2018. This time, it will have seven to eight. Andalusia would get 4 to 5 seats from Inmaculada Nieto, while Teresa Rodriguez would receive three.
Moreno stated that if the script was followed, it would be possible to govern alone. However, no prior polls had shown an absolute majority. All of the candidates brought Moreno closer to 50 seats (the absolute major is 55). He would also need to face a simple majority to accept a coalition government or to face the opposition. This has happened in the legislature that is ending. Ciudadanos, his partner up to now, doesn’t start with options for reissued 2018 results. He could even be left without representation at the Andalusian Parlament.
Expected election results in 2022
Distribution of seats at closing of polling stations
55 Absolute majority
PP
58-61
PSOE
26-30
Vox
Total seats 109
13-15
Through Andalusia
4-5
A. Andalusia
3
GAD3
R.C.
Expected election results in 2022
Distribution of the 109 seats as the polling stations close
55 Absolute majority
PP
58-61
PSOE
26-30
Vox
Total seats 109
13-15
Through Andalusia
4-5
A. Andalusia
3
GAD3
R.C.
Expected election results in 2022
Distribution of the 109 seats as the polling stations close
55 Absolute majority
PP
58-61
PSOE
26-30
Vox
Total seats 109
13-15
Through Andalusia
4-5
A. Andalusia
3
GAD3
R.C.
Expected election results in 2022
Distribution of the 109 seats as the polling stations close
55 Absolute majority
PP
58-61
PSOE
26-30
Vox
Total seats 109
13-15
Through Andalusia
4-5
A. Andalusia
3
GAD3
R.C.