The OECD expects a global recession to 6% for 2020 if the pandemic Covid-19 “remains under control”, and 7.6% in case of a second wave, in its economic outlook published on Wednesday. By 2021, the Organisation for economic cooperation and development anticipates a strong rebound in the first case with a growth of 5.2% rebound, which would, however, be limited to 2.8% in the case of the second wave.
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at the Beginning of march, so that the coronavirus was already hit hard in China but not yet the other major economies of the world, the OECD forecast a 2.4% global growth for the current year.
“terrible Consequences”
What about whether or not there is a second epidemic wave, “at the end of 2021, the loss of income will exceed that of all previous recessions over the last hundred years except in times of war, with terrible consequences and long-lasting for people, enterprises and governments,” says the chief economist of the OECD, Laurence Boone.
“all Around, the containment has reinforced the inequality between the workers”, the most qualified to telecommute so that the young and the less skilled are “often on the front line” in the fight against the pandemic, the chief economist of the OECD. The Covid-19 has also “accelerated the switch from a ‘great integration’ to a ‘great fragmentation'” of the world economy with the appearance of additional restrictions to trade and investment”, according to Ms. Boone.
to Strengthen health systems
The euro area will be particularly affected with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 9.1% in the best-case scenario, and 11.5% in the case of the second wave in 2020. For the United States, the OECD expects a decline in GDP of 7.3%, or 8.5%, depending on the scenario.
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China, even a champion of the growth last year, with 6.1%, will see it also its economy will contract 2.6%, or of 3.7% this year if the virus is reborn massively. To allow the economy to recover, the OECD recommends to “strengthen health systems”, “to facilitate the evolutions of the business while strengthening the protection of the revenue”, and “make supply chains more resilient”.
Economy “more just and more sustainable”
“The government must seize this opportunity to design an economy that is more just and more sustainable, make the competition and the regulations smarter, modernize the taxation, spending and social protection”, calls Laurence Boone. It points to the essential role of trust, without which neither the consumption nor the investment will not restart.
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Or “barriers to trade and threats to supply chains also reduce the decrease of the uncertainty, necessary for the investment to resume”, leading economist at the time where the hopes of pre-crisis regulation of the trade conflict, the sino-american evaporate. Finally, “the international community should ensure that when a vaccine or treatment will be available it will be distributed rapidly throughout the world,” asked Mrs. Boone, because “otherwise, the threat will persist”.
The editorial team conseilleLes United States went into recession in February after 128 months expansionL’pulp and paper industry, the French threatened by the récessionLe Japan into recession, under the effect of the VAT and the Covid-19Récession: why France plunges more than its voisins8 commentairesGentilhomme – Vieille Canaille 84le 10/06/2020 at 11:33 am
Why a recession in all the western countries say industrialized) , and a growth of 4-5 % in Serbia , the country which was there for 21 years , bombed by NATO , and since started practically from scratch – infrastructure and industry was destroyed by bombing “friendly” ?
Whatever Worksle 10/06/2020 at 11:27 am
Economics “that is more just and more sustainable” : The notion of justice, such as it is conceived by some, is incompatible with sustainability. It is a hard truth to hear, alas.
Pat152le 10/06/2020 11:23
9% for the euro area, and 15% for France. We’ll see the final numbers, but this should make people think, and in us.
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