Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have just reminded Westerners that the war, which seemed limited to them, exists. “If you want peace, prepare for war,” the Romans wisely advised. Lucas Menget, international columnist on LCI, former deputy director of France Info, co-published with Adrien Jaulmes, correspondent for Le Figaro in Washington and Prix Albert-Londres, a Summary of strategic survival, prefaced by Admiral Loïc Finaz. A geopolitical guide accessible to all, which combines readable maps and embodied texts from men and women in the field.
LE FIGARO.- Your book is called “Strategic Survival Summary”. Why “Precise”? Lucas MENGET. – Unlike an Atlas, which is read by the maps, with Adrien Jaulmes, with whom I co-directed this “Précis”, we wanted to put cartography and texts on an equal footing. The very word Precis should not be understood in the legal sense of the term, that is to say with absolute completeness, but in the maritime sense. Like the “Routier” that sailors use when they cross an ocean and which gives them the essential data, the main currents, the dangers, the places to take refuge… Our work is therefore aimed at general public reader who has access to both very easy to read maps and texts written by women and men in the field, such as soldiers, researchers, journalists. In fact, our book is intended to be a response to the misinformation and emotion that too often circulate on social networks. Facing the real wars of today and tomorrow is the best way to combat fear: this is why the term “strategic survival” is so important. It is about seeing with clarity and lucidity an increasingly obscure world and taking into account all the visible or invisible conflicts which are a threat to global balance.
You have just returned from a report in Israel. What did you see ? I saw the trauma caused by the October 7 attack by Hamas, a bit like September 11. After astonishment and then fear, there is now anger towards Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even if he ended up accepting a hostage exchange. The contract between the Israelis and the state has been damaged. Accepting the compulsory recruitment of their children into the army (two and a half years for girls, three years for boys), families saw this as a gigantic security gap. I also observed the depth of the divide within the Israeli population. On the one hand, there is the traditional and classical society which, despite the deterioration in recent decades of the collective vision of the State of Israel, is ready to co-exist with the Palestinians. On the other side, there are the settlers and the far right. Often Orthodox – religious people or religious students do not pay taxes and are not required to perform military service – they have a messianic vision. According to them, the Israeli army must intervene in Gaza and then in the West Bank, in order to maintain the annexations there.
Is a medium-term peace between Palestine and Israel possible? Although we all hope for it, I don’t believe in it right away. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is completely discredited. Result: even if Palestinian civilians resent Hamas for having plunged them into such a tragedy, they recognize the movement as a political force in the country against Israel. There is no possible political future today without engaging in real political negotiation and therefore speaking to the leaders of Hamas. Even if it is done via Qatar, Egypt and the United States.
What are we to make of the general questioning of Israel’s defense against Gaza? I don’t think the general opinion of the world is pro-Palestinian or, in any case, pro-Hamas. Israel’s massive bombing of the Gaza Strip for two weeks, which resumed after the truce, in response to the Hamas terrorist attack of October 7, appeared disproportionate. The images of the “carpet bombing” of the Americans in Iraq in 2003 are still in our minds, but even more violent.
Behind Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, there is Iran. For what strategy? Iran is a global peculiarity. A country, not Arab but Persian, with a long and complex history, it presents an Islamic dictatorial regime led by a religious ayatollah. Although he undoubtedly contributed to October 7, he refrained from intervening in the current war between Israel and Hamas. Seen from Tehran, Gaza is nothing. Already a key player in the region with pawns in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, Iran intends to possess nuclear weapons against Israel, and by capillarity in the United States.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stalls. What is the way out? Let us salute the exemplary courage of the Ukrainian nation, united behind its President Zelensky. But the facts are there: the conflict is getting bogged down, the Ukrainians are going to enter the third winter of war, with power cuts, permanent bombings which have already caused at least 100,000 deaths, the Israeli-Palestinian conflagration which is diverting the attention of Western public opinion which, moreover, questions the importance of the military aid provided to Ukraine. And what about a possible re-election in a year of Donald Trump who intends to cut off all military support for kyiv? We must find a way to end the war. Even if it means offending good minds, there is a little music of possible negotiations that is heard. Is it not in Ukraine’s interest to give up Crimea and part of Donbass to Russia in exchange for rapid entry into the European Union and NATO? It’s probably too early, but the question is worth asking.
In Europe, infrastructure is an asset but also a vulnerability… The deliberate explosion, still unclaimed, of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea is proof of this! There are currently more than 2,600 oil and gas pipelines in operation around the world. The sea is a real challenge. More than 95% of information, via submarine cables, and 80% of consumer goods pass there. Hence the importance of the National Marines which combat illegal fishing, drug traffickers and attacks on infrastructure. If China has become the second naval power after the United States, Europe has not given up, strengthened by the power of the French Navy.
Will artificial intelligence and space be the theaters of tomorrow’s confrontation? It is clear that ships, land forces and planes need data collected in space to obtain information about the adversary. When Russia wanted to impose digital fog on Ukraine, the country’s military were able to communicate with each other thanks to the Starlink satellite network of Elon Munsk, a non-state actor. There remains the question of nuclear weapons which is not resolved with, for example, around thirty warheads which North Korea would have at its disposal!