a storm that is brewing over Switzerland, wrote at the beginning of October, the UBS Economist Alessandro Bee, with a view to the further prospects of the local economy. Such a Storm it is, apparently, in the world, as a survey conducted by the UBS among your customers and in the investment area makes it clear.
As a result, around 80 percent of respondents say they would be expected in the future with larger-exclusive on the markets of the fittings. With 55 percent more than half expected before the end of 2020, a significant slump on the stock exchanges. With 52 percent, a slim majority questioned in the light of these expectations, not surprisingly, also the fact that now the Moment is favorable to invest in capital markets.
UBS has published this survey as part of its overall assessments of the economic development in the next year. These forecasts are not particularly dramatic. The economic growth in the next year Vera beat the UBS Economists to 0.9 percent, after already low 0.7 percent in 2019.
with no international sporting events, the revenues of which are attributed due to the presence of associations such as Fifa and the International Olympic Committee in Switzerland, and on the local economic situation have hardly any influence, should be the growth in 2020 by 0.7 percent.
This forecast is at the bottom of the previously published expectations of other institutions. The organization of the industrial countries to OECD estimates, Switzerland in the next year, for example, with a growth of 1.4 as being held on Thursday published economic Outlook. The higher expectation compared to 2019 is mainly used at international sports events.
All the institutes expect a significant slowdown in the Swiss economy in comparison to the boom year of 2018, as the Swiss economy grew by 2.8 percent. But a recession – in the sense of a economic crisis – and, so, somewhat in advance of the said date, no domestic or international Institution is the.
Low Visibility
the survey of investors shows, however, is the confidence in the forecasts currently as low as rare, even at the Forecasters themselves. Too many risks are in the room, which can tarnish the next time the economic picture worldwide and also in Switzerland, very much more than expected.
The biggest concerns by the US President, Donald Trump set in motion a trade war between the US and China. Depending on what is announced Trump to do this just via Twitter or other channels, the exchanges, and the further expectation barometer for the economic development.
Since the two economic great powers on the one hand as a Phase I referred to between the deal of negotiating to be sealed in mid-December, the optimism somewhat. This is likely to be, according to UBS Economist Alessandro Bee, an important reason for this is that, for example, the so-called purchasing managers ‘ index for the Swiss industry (PMI) at the beginning of November from its low in October removed and up to date with 49,4 points, only slightly below the growth threshold of 50 points recorded. Each value stands for the number of pessimistic expectations.
A re-disappointment to a solution to the Trade dispute can practice the prospects just as quickly, re-entry, as you have brightened recently. Finally, it looked in the last two years after a relaxation, and then it came in contrast to a further aggravation of the duties.
Currently it looks that the trade conflict with China and the United States remains limited and the threat of duties on European vehicles for the time being, absence – which would have also affected the Switzerland had a negative impact. Trump had recently an important period for the introduction of such duties go to waste. But without that settled, what comes up in this discussion yet, and may come in remains your main negative consequence for those economies that are only marginally affected by higher customs duties: The companies hold back on investment. The presses on the growth of the world economy and particularly to the business of the industry.
A Strauss to ensure factors
The trade war is not the only international factor that can justify the restraint on the investment and unrest on the stock exchanges and capital markets: As about the upcoming parliamentary election in the UK, which aims to bring more clarification to the Brexit, and the presidential election in the USA. Even if the erratic Donald Trump should lose, makes you look to the capital markets, in front of a left slip in US policy that could lead to significantly higher taxes.
For uncertainty, monetary policy, and the world’s extremely low interest rate level also. The expression for the problems associated with the financial stability report, the European Central published Bank (ECB) on Wednesday. Some of the listed negative consequences of the low interest rate level in Switzerland. So the debt is rising in the Eurozone, and investors are always higher risks. The Prime example is the real estate market, where in many places already Overvaluations show. And the ECB is warning of a slump in the capital markets, especially in the area of the extremely high-rated bonds.
to avoid The possibilities of the Swiss economy, all these factors of uncertainty are low. Not only because of the SNB in the Wake of the European Central banks holding interest rates extremely low, in order to prevent appreciation of the Swiss franc. A lower growth of the world economy and disruptions in the capital markets to meet the local economy, regardless of the Swiss franc exchange rate. As a country-specific uncertainty factors experts call also the unclear relationship with the EU, which is expected to come in the next year in connection with the framework contract is increasingly on the Agenda.
Created: 21.11.2019, 21:21 PM
