Caused by the surge in raw material prices at the end of 2021 and the war in Ukraine, the inflationary crisis that hit food shelves over the last two years is well and truly over. Prices of consumer food products fell slightly by 0.1% year-on-year on average in May, according to monthly data from Circana published on Thursday. This timid deflation had never been observed since December 2021. This development is part of the trend of the last 9 months with labels decreasing slightly continuously (between -0.2% and -0.5%, each month ).
This is good news for consumers who should not notice this when shopping in supermarkets. And for good reason. Compared to the pre-crisis period, prices still remain very high at 15.9% over two years. These decreases over one year are significant in the men’s care categories (-8.7%), cooked poultry hams (-5.8%), shower gels (-5.5%) and even frozen desserts and pastas (- 4.2%). Conversely, the prices of certain products are increasing sharply, such as canned flageolets (8.7%), oils (8.1%), canned sweet corn (7.4%) or juices. fruit (5.6%).
It is therefore mainly for hygiene and cleaning products that this downward trend is observed, estimated at -2.2% over one year. The reason ? Since March 1, the Descrozaille law (EGalim 3) has drastically limited promotional offers in these departments and “manufacturers have probably not passed price increases with the volume risk linked to these limitations”, recently analyzed Emily Mayer, expert mass consumption at Circana.
For food products, prices increased slightly by 0.2%. There is no doubt that the very low price increases (less than 1%) that distributors obtained from manufacturers for national brand products at the end of January, during annual negotiations, play a role. Prices that brands are free to pass on to shelf prices. But this is not the only explanation. The price war raging between major food distributors is favoring this decline. With purchasing power remaining constrained, the different brands seek to apply the lowest possible prices to avoid distancing themselves from each other at all costs. To do this, they do not hesitate to wait to pass on price increases or cut into their margins.
The period is therefore crucial and there is no guarantee that this trend will continue. Michel-Edouard Leclerc, the president of the strategic committee of the brand which is at the top of the list in the sector, recently indicated that the inflation rate would be around 2% in hypermarkets. However, this is a far cry from the sharp increases recorded during the inflationary crisis.