A broad majority of the Swedish parliament has decided that emissions of greenhouse gases from domestic transport, excluding aviation, will be cut by 70 percent by the year 2030 compared with 2010.
Recent statistics from the Swedish transport administration show that the development right now is going in the wrong direction. Instead of reducing the approximately 8 per cent per year required to reach the target increased, on the contrary, the emissions by 0.5 per cent in 2018. The obvious question is, of course, if it even is possible to achieve the climate target for 2030, or is it simply too late.
The overall picture is that the goal is still achievable, but it requires a palette of political decisions within a short for the necessary investment in fossil-fuel-free solutions to be implemented in time. Emissions will not decrease at a steady pace, but the biggest effects come after the 2025 even though many investments are made relatively quickly.
the Assessment is that after the year 2023 will electric cars go about 40 miles on a single charge, not only to be cheaper to own but also cheaper than the equivalent petrol or diesel car is already at the purchase. When will the electric car sell itself.
happily, our journey towards the 70 per cent lower trafikutsläpp not in the day. Although emissions increased in 2018 so they have decreased overall, with 18 per cent compared with 2010. There are now a number of concrete solutions that are ready to be introduced. Together, they would be able to reduce emissions by more than 70 per cent.
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the Strategy to manage the traffic targets on climate rests on three legs:
1 Refuelling. the Involvement of more biofuels in both petrol and diesel is the action that can reduce emissions the fastest. More than 90 percent of all cars on the road today are either gasoline or diesel cars, and with great probability, half of all cars in the year 2030 still be there.
Sweden has today a bränslebyteslag. Through the can with the political decision to control how much biofuels to be mixed into all petrol and diesel sold. Today, emissions have been reduced by 18 per cent from fuel with the help of the involvement of, in particular, biodiesel (HVO) ethanol and the amount of high-blend fuels such as biogas, HVO and ethanol as also used. It makes us a world leader, but is not sufficient to reach the goal. Now we need a new decision, which determines how quickly the share of biofuels in the tanks will increase between 2020 and 2030.
But enough of the Swedish forest and agriculture in order to produce the necessary sustainable transport fuels? The inventory as zero carbon Sweden indicate that the conditions are relatively good. For example, plans Preem to produce 30 TWh of biofuels, together with various partners by the year 2030 and an additional 5 TWh can be produced by, inter alia, SCA, St1 and the South. Raw materials are tree branches and tops from forestry and side streams of forest industry, other production, such as sawdust and black liquor from paper mills as well as vegetable oils and animal waste. Together, these volumes suffice to cover the needs for the reduction of emissions by 32 percent, which we estimate will be required from biofuels by 2030.
2 Electrification. Sweden Will cope with the climate change targets, ever more miles run on electricity. And the evidence suggests that ketchupeffekten now is here. In 2019, there will be 100 new elbilsmodeller to choose from, plus new fuel cells that run on hydrogen. In Norway, one in every two new car electric car. According to Volvo, they should have the corresponding sales by the year 2025, and according to other people’s assessments will, in principle, all new cars run on electricity in the year 2030. Such a rapid development is necessary for biofuels in the long term will be enough for the other modes, not least the airline industry.
The new bonus-malus system introduced 1 July 2018 has already begun to generate an effect. The percentage of rechargeable cars has increased and hit a new record high for a month in march, with 14.4 percent of total car sales. The assessment is that after the year 2023 will electric cars go about 40 miles on a single charge, not only to be cheaper to own but also cheaper than the equivalent petrol or diesel car is already at the purchase. When will the electric car sell itself. But the conversion can’t wait to get a proper kick-start requires a new political decision. At a quick development of elbilsförsäljningen sketched here will contribute with a reduction of 15 per cent.
3 Transporteffektivare society. A rapidly increased use of biofuels and electricity is not enough to achieve the climate objectives. Increases in emissions of enhanced medium delivery rate operating so far has been small, thanks to the energy efficiency of vehicles, and is expected to continue to be there thanks to the EU requirements on reducing energy use on both passenger and trucks.
Now, we need an active policy leading to more efficient transport usage and reduced car driving in the larger cities – it is the most important measure also in a global perspective. Forecasts indicate that the potential for emission reductions as a result of this is about 35% to 2045. An important policy instrument to bring about such a change appears to be to introduce stadsmiljöavtal according to a model introduced in Norway. Where the promise city limited volume in exchange for state money to invest in smarter mobility solutions where bike, attractive public transport and car-sharing are basic principles.
If all of these three parts go in lock would Sweden’s emissions from domestic transport to be able to reduce more than 70 per cent by 2030. Five key decisions that need to be taken in the near future for it to become a reality, is:
• Decide on a reduktionsplikt to approximately 50 per cent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 , as well as to decide if the curve looks to provide a long-term investment decisions.
• the Government should, in a similar way as was done with wind power, establish a planning framework for the proportion of sales of rechargeable cars in Sweden. , with perhaps 90% in 2030. This encourages both consumers and producers to invest.
• Give the Swedish energy agency the responsibility to develop a strategy that ensures that there are charging stations in all of Sweden , the support that will help owners of small houses, housing associations and rental housing companies be able to charge at home, and to reinforce the electricity grid where needed.
• Facing the Norwegian model of stadsmiljöavtal in order to develop solutions and increase the budget for this 1 billion in a first step.
• Before a more accurate reseavdrag which does not subsidise car traffic around the larger cities, but directed more to the rural areas.
the Goal for the transport sector is tough and time is scarce, but with so many key players who are behind it, we have good conditions to succeed.