“Therefore there will be no british crash out of the EU”
“Win, Theresa May, the vote today on its utträdesavtal will be likely to be an orderly brexit.”
“Loses she is all the options left on the table.”
“But here is why I think that the least likely outcome is a british crash out of the union.”
“today, the british would according to ursprungsplanen have left the EU. Theresa May has time and again ruled that the 29 march, it is bye, bye to the european union.”
“instead, The continuing spectacle of the parliament for the third time to vote on the utträdesavtal she negotiated with the EU. It looks like the prime minister will lose once again even if it will be with a considerably smaller margin than in the previous brakförlusterna.”
“This is her last desperate attempt to save the agreement. She has even promised his resignation if the parliament approves the deal. The warranty that someone else may take over the negotiations on the future relationship with the EU has made many of the hard brexitörerna to change its mind and back the deal.”
“Which option produces a hard brexit. Many stresses, the risk for the british to leave without an agreement.”
“Not at least on the EU side have one the last time, sighed heavily, and signalled that it has done far past preparing for this option. Even the british are preparing. A hard brexit occurs automatically on april 12, if the agreement is not approved and nothing is done.”
“the Alternative to the crash -”
“But the likelihood of that happening is small for several reasons.”
“The only thing that it’s all the time been a majority in the british parliament is to exclude a hard brexit. The house will act to stop a crash and it becomes very difficult for May not listen to this majority.”
“You should probably see the century of a crash very much like the negotiation tactics from both sides. The threat of a crash to get britternau002FEU to do everything to avoid just this.”
“Even if Mays contract is voted down a third time, there are a number of options to resort to.”
“the British can request a longer extension of the deadline. Something the EU will just give them the british set a good reason.”
“new elections are perhaps the most likely reason. Maybe get a new parliament after an election campaign where the brexit is the absolutely crucial question, easier to agree on how to exit should go to or even if it will be something.”
“A second referendum on the brexit is another possibility. Now there is a ready utträdesavtal to take a position to the compared to stay.”
“I think that common sense finally wins. Neither the united kingdom nor the EUROPEAN union want to have a disordered withdrawal. It means economic bangs in mångmiljardklassen for both sides and the risk of major disturbances when it comes to supplies, transport, etc.”
“The 27 EU countries will do everything to stop a hard brexit even if the irritation with London is big and your gut feeling of many people say, ”kick out the british so that there would be an end to velandet”. The union has many other urgent issues to deal with which is now on the ice.”
“at the same time, everyone realizes that a crash is even worse.”
“The one who prepares the way for a hard brexit is taking on a major responsibility and can expect to become the scapegoat when the british notice that their wallets are getting thinner.”
“May have stood out with much but don’t want to be the scapegoat.”
