Stefan Ingves has no integration policy. He speaks not in invandringdebatten, has no mandate in labour-market policy. He tries not to facilitate newcomers ‘ introduction.
Still, it seems that the Riksbank has implemented the most successful strategy to accelerate the jobbintegrationen in Sweden in recent years: To allow the labor market to go warm enough, and build a högtrycksekonomi where more and more people get a foot in.
power over the unemployment rate is uncontroversial. Lower interest rate provides more demand, more jobs. It is then old.
Minusräntan deserve part of the credit for plussiffrorna on the Swedish labour market. The economy has created 1,000 new jobs a week just the past year. The number of, and percentage of employed persons has grown in evenly pace.
however, What is not in the textbooks is that a low policy rate in the long term can benefit people who find it difficult to establish themselves. Henry Ohlsson, one of the Riksbank’s vicechefer, think for example that monetary policy is unable to push down the unemployment rate among flyktinginvandrare ( interview in Dagens Industri 19/3).
Minusränta enough as well as not for people to learn Swedish. General efterfrågepolitik and economic boom can not replace reform policy, reads the ancient wisdom.
is an open question. In the united states there is now a debate surrounding the long-term effects of a hot labour market.
A nyaktuell hypothesis comes from the 1970s. The economist Arthur Okun coined when the concept högtrycksekonomi. ”The difference between an unemployment rate of 5 per cent and 4 per cent far exceeds the creation of jobs for just 1% of the workforce”, he claimed.
the Point was quite simple. Desperate the employer is good for marginalised job seekers. People who otherwise would not be called to interview can, on a hot labour market, give it a chance. Companies are forced to break old habits, seek wider and the training of new employees.
the Boom is thus a ladder. More allowed to climb.
researchers from the Fed made, suggests that the effect is measurable. Among other things, benefit african americans when unemployment is squeezed from an already low level. And the benefit is partially lasting.
Both the Fed’s last boss Janet Yellen, and its current, Jerome Powell, has spoken about the long högkonjunkturens potentially transformative effects. Since the typical the signs of overheating is absent, it has been the dream location for högtrycksekonomin. Tears from the financial crisis may have been made.
in Sweden?
the Labor market is not as hot as the american. But there are still strong trends: the flyktinginvandrare who arrived in the year 2007, only 16 per cent are employed two years later. Among those who came in 2015, the corresponding proportion was twice as high as 33 per cent.
the Establishment of the jobs seem to go twice as fast. Employment among foreign born women has risen sharply. Youth unemployment has also plummeted.
Link to the graphics
foolproof integration policies in the long term. Companies may choose to speed up the automation. Bottlenecks also have other side effects. A deep economic crisis, and would also thwart progress. Vulnerable groups are hit then hard.
But if minusräntan contributed to a högtrycksekonomi where more and more people got a chance to learn a new profession and the English language – then, the Riksbank has done more than just temporarily stabilized the economy.