A nuclear exchange before the eyes, have avoided the United States and the Soviet Union in the Cold war, a direct confrontation. It proxy wars, the struggle for spheres of influence, but never shot GIs at Soviet soldiers or Vice versa. The balance of terror seemed to work Alone, the risk of a nuclear-acting shock-stabilizing, thus, the theory of nuclear deterrence.
Whether this logic applies to India and Pakistan to transfer, is controversial. Already in may 1974, India had tested a first nuclear weapon. In 1998, it ignited five additional warheads. Pakistan, which had built up since the seventies, a nuclear weapons program, after which it moved with the simultaneous Detonation of five bombs. Nevertheless, the two countries conducted only one year later the war.
The jars on the supposed certainty that nuclear deterrence creates stability, and leads to the stability-instability paradox. It States that the nuclear powers seek to avoid a clash with nuclear weapons because of the devastating effects of the bomb, therefore, have a stabilizing effect. At the same time, a stable deterrence favored but limited conventional wars, and other forms of armed conflict – such as the support of terrorists and separatists, as they accused India and Pakistan.
Video: The fear of escalation rises The military is mobilized Indian troops move into the disputed Region. Video: Reuters
there is Much evidence that neither Pakistan nor India have any interest to escalate the conflict to a larger war. However, it is an open question as to whether you can keep the dynamics of the conflict under the control of or driven by a retaliatory logic and internal political pressure in a spiral slide that could ultimately lead to a nuclear war, without one of the sides actually wanted to.
the history of The block confrontation is rich in warning examples of technical and human error; of the Cuban missile crisis to the period after the Cold war, the world has been preserved several times, mainly by luck and brave people to the fact that after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, even nuclear weapons have been used.
decades-old territorial conflict
The super powers had to this danger react by installed, among other things, the channels of communication improved, the red phones in the White house and in the Kremlin. India and Pakistan have a hard time with such a deeskaliere measures. In crises, they cut more of the wires. In addition, there was between the Soviet Union and the United States have no territorial conflicts, while the Status of Kashmir since decades, a Central point of dispute between Delhi and Islamabad.
Pakistan sees its nuclear Arsenal as a life insurance policy that compensates for the growing conventional Superiority of India. This Arsenal is, however, highly vulnerable, as the carrier systems, only land-based ball are ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and fighter jets; India has submarine-based weapons, and thus a second-strike capability.
(editing Tamedia)
Created: 27.02.2019, 23:38 PM