Gasoline, diesel, electricity, but also daily shopping and services: inflation continued, in August, to weigh on the daily budget of the French. And for good reason: according to INSEE, consumer prices started to rise again this month, after several months of deceleration. Inflation thus reached 4.8%, year-on-year, according to a first estimate, against 4.3% in July.
This new acceleration, the first since April, is due to the rebound in “energy prices”, note the national statisticians. Conversely, “food prices should slow down (for the fifth consecutive month), as well as, to a lesser extent, those of manufactured goods and services”. By way of explanation, the note cites in particular the rise in electricity prices, that of “petroleum products”, as well as the end of the sales, which logically raised prices on store shelves. So many elements that weighed in the balance: “Over one month, consumer prices would increase by 1.0% in August 2023, after 0.1% in July”, notes INSEE.
In recent months, year-on-year inflation has slowed considerably, driven in particular by a base effect, after a year 2022 marked by a massive spike in prices. The one-year rate thus fell from 2.9% in January 2022 to a peak of 6.3% last February. It has been falling continuously since April, from 5.9% to 4.3% last month.
In the coming months, inflation should continue to decline, according to experts. In its latest macroeconomic projections, published in June, the Banque de France wrote that over the last six months of the year, “total HICP inflation (harmonized index of consumer prices) would gradually decline […] ], to return to around 2% by 2025, subject to the absence of new shocks on imported raw materials”. It is expected this year to average 5.6% annually, compared to 5.9% last year. Same observation for INSEE: in their June economic report, national statisticians said they expected food prices to slow down markedly, “without however necessarily falling on average”. Overall, the rate “would come back to 4.4% year on year in December”, the lowest level since March 2022.
Despite this slowdown, this subject remains in everyone’s mind, while inflation has been eating away at household budgets for more than a year. And the bad news is piling up: several retail representatives have warned that prices on the shelves will not drop significantly before the next negotiations, next March. At the same time, in recent weeks, soaring prices at the pump have driven the average price per liter of SP95-E10 to 1.95 euros, and that of diesel to 1.89 euros. Levels that had not been seen since last February, and which weigh on the wallets of French people who have gone on vacation by car.
The various political parties remain on the lookout for this issue, which affects purchasing power: gathered around the President of the Republic, opposition leaders and the executive have agreed on the principle of a “salary conference” in the coming months. . Purpose: To discuss “careers and [the] industries below minimum wage.” For his part, the boss of Bercy must speak, this Thursday noon, following discussions with the food industry and distributors. There is urgency, while the CEO of Carrefour, Alexandre Bompard, recently warned of a “massive phenomenon of deprivation, deconsumption”, in the face of inflation.
