After the market turmoil at the end of the year 2018, the stock motor runs so far this year. Since the beginning of January, the stock markets in Frankfurt and New York each account for around five per cent. Also in Zurich, the rates went back up.
However, analysts warn that the fluctuations are likely to increase in the coming weeks, if companies publish around the globe, their results for the final quarter of 2018. “The nervousness with a view to the balance of the season has increased,” says Lars Kreckel, chief analyst at asset Manager Legal & General Investment. “Investors are now quick to the baby with the bath water.”
The analysts ‘ forecasts for fourth quarter corporate profits are already significantly lower than in the previous year. According to the data provider Refinitiv you expect that the Surpluses of the European Index Stoxx 600-listed companies have risen by an average of six percent. That would even be half of the growth in the final quarter of 2017.
for European equities, responsible analyst at the investment Bank Goldman Sachs, Sharon Bell, expects to see even with a profit growth of four per cent. “This will be a reality check,” says Emmanuel Cau, chief analyst at the British Bank Barclays. “The big question is whether the decline in the expectations of the companies are already priced into the rates.”
Apple investors hit the Mark
Apple investors met at the beginning of January to the Mark and gave the direction: for the First time since the introduction of the iPhone over ten years ago, the US company missed its sales forecast and justified this with a cyclical weakness in China.
The shares were going into the basement. Also with companies from Europe, the warnings multiplied. So disappointed about the French money house Société Générale, the German consumer goods manufacturer Henkel and the Swiss Bank UBS first-quarter figures and a cautious Outlook on the coming months. So, UBS has earned in the past year to 2018, nearly 5 billion US dollars.
However, it could be more, if not, the financial market would have been turmoil in the fourth quarter. As the exchanges played crazy against the end of the year, customers were quickly restrained, and the largest Swiss Bank earned quarter-over-quarter earnings to be significantly below the expectations of professional observers.
Overall, could be just the forecasts of the company as a sticking point, explains market expert Thomas butcher, of the banking house builders. “As long as we see no breakthrough in the overall issues of trade disputes, and Brexit, should the company reject here, too far out of the window and rather reserved.”
“Greater realism”
Postbank shares expert Heinz-Gerd Sonnenschein expects that the potential losses are just on the German stock exchange limited. “Here is a much greater realism than on Wall Street.”
in 2018, according to the gifts, the Dax and the EuroStoxx50 approximately 18 and 14 percent, respectively, while the U.S. Index S&P 500 fell by only six percent. A monthly survey by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, according to 39 percent of the market are currently of the view that European shares are undervalued. So is the proportion of the surveyed investors was last updated two years ago.
In the past year, investors withdrew according to studies, the Fund data provider EPFR, from European investment funds over 72 billion dollars, more than in any other Region. The capital outflows continued in the first weeks of 2019 but with a significantly lower pace. The Trend has shifted, according to EPFR, in the direction of the USA – investors withdrew $ 15 billion, in Europe only two billion. (Dec/sda)
Created: 23.01.2019, 10:28 PM
