(Obi.no:) the main index on the Oslo stock Exchange falls at the time of writing 0,69 per cent to 869,74. The latest month’s index down 7,30 per cent.
– I think the decline on the Oslo stock Exchange in October is a correction. The duration of the correction implies that it is over or nearing its end now, ” comments chief economist and partner Bjørn Roger Wilhelmsen in Nordkinn Asset Management to the Obi.no.
He believes the Oslo stock Exchange is going to be higher than the current level a few months forward in time.
The big nedgangsperiodene on the stock exchange coincides almost always with the economic recession, and where we are now. It is not the prospect of economic recession in the coming 12 months. Therefore, I think we’re going to have a recoil on the stock exchange in the coming months, ” says Wilhelmsen.
If we look two-three years forward in time, he believes, the prospects are far more uncertain.
– The international upturn has long been in a mature phase and there is a significant risk that there will be a recession within the it has been three years, possibly triggered by an even higher level of interest rates internationally, ” says sjeføkonomen.
Wilhelmsen expect not, therefore, that the stock market will make it especially good when one looks over a two-three year period.
Can contribute
What comes to uncertainties, believe sjeføkonomen in Nordkinn Asset Management the biggest risk factor is if the economic growth globally continues to decline.
– Except in the united STATES, so has the economic growth globally slowed in 2018. A continuation of this weak trend is the biggest risk factor. Of more specific uncertainties I will pull up the Italian government finances and the risk of spread to other countries and markets.
– What can pull up in the positive favor?
If economic growth globally stabilize or turn up again. Commitment to increased communication between the united STATES and China that ends with handelskrigen skrinlegges, believes Wilhelmsen.
– Will hardly be changed now
According to the senior economist Halfdan Grangård in Handelsbanken Capital Markets it is still the international developments that characterise the Oslo stock Exchange.
– The image will hardly change in the short term. For Norwegian shares, it is the development in the european and american stock market which provides the clearest smitteeffektene, commenting on the Grangård to the Obi.no.
For both markets, he believes the earnings season may give a difference from day to day.
In Europe, there is a lot of attention around the political challenges around the Brexit and Italy’s national budget. It is not expecting anything official from the parties in these negotiations this week, but the rumblings can create noise and lead to movements in the stock markets.
IN the united STATES are linked according to the seniorøkonomen like the last weeks of the fall to the rise in long-term interest rates and concerns around handelskonflikten.
– despite generally good company result, the us stock market worn on the basis of the criteria mentioned. There is also a certain fear that we have reached “peak earnings” as a result of the effect of the skattereformen ebbing away, ” says Grangård.
A correction
The large falls in the equity markets, we see according to Handelsbanken-this is normally when the economy goes into a recession.
There are no signs of now. Thus, we see for ourselves that the falls will remain at the levels which can be referred to as a correction. It does not mean that the markets can’t fall further the next week.
For Norwegian shares its part, according to the Grangård development there that will control the short-term course, but also the oil price becomes important.
– And here can a the mention that the Us sanctions against Iran take effect at the beginning of november. It is probably largely priced in by the market, but it is very uncertain just what effect this will have, end Grangård to the Obi.no.
Other financial news:
– low risk of lower stock prices get realøknomiske consequences
the Manager is waiting on kjøpsmulighet
