(Obi.no): Yesterday’s boligprisstatistikk from the Estate of Norway showed a fall in prices of 0.6 per cent in October. Adjusted for seasonal variations was house prices unchanged.
So far in the year have house prices risen 2.7 per cent.
the Numbers confirm the trend with moderation and flattening, said Property Norway director Christian Vammervold Dreyer in his presentation.
– the Interest rate doesn’t matter
chief economist Frank Jullum at Danske Bank notes that house prices have flattened out in the last five months after a powerful recoil in 1. half of the year.
– It is first and foremost an increase in the number of homes for sale which keeps inflation down. Although renteforventningene might be able to play a role, does not indicate the very high for turnover on it, ” he says in a comment to the Obi.no.
– No growth, no collapse
Jullum opportunity for a significant tilbudsside far out in 2019, and explains this with the high residential construction in the last couple of years.
– With gradually higher interest rates, there is therefore no reason to wait any particular realprisvekst on the housing. On the other hand, we expect the solid growth, and low unemployment rate, so any collapse is well not most likely, he continues.
Kjempehøye save
Makroøkonom Jeanette Power Ebb in DNB Markets draws up the inventory of unsold homes has risen to a historically high level.
– an Increase in the supply of new homes, the interest rate increases in september (and more coming), as well as the low population growth is expected to dampen boligprisveksten further forward, but we are waiting not a strong case, since makroutsiktene in general are positive, the sums she is in a update.
Yesterday’s boligprisstatistikk does not change the meglerhusets view that the Norges Bank will increase the key rate gradually, with the next rate hike at the march meeting next year.
– short-Term risk
Handelsbanken also points to the more calming factors brokers believe will get the effect on house prices beyond 2. half of the year 2018.
This includes the increased completion of new homes (which rose markedly in Oslo in 3. quarter), low population growth and higher loan rates.
senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov highlights some nedsiderisiko, especially for Oslo, but consider the risk to be short-term.
– sales activities remain high, and some of the prisdempende factors, such as higher completion, will gradually decrease with lower new construction, he adds in an update.
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