Two maneuvers are engaged. One, on the forehead, progresses laboriously and is measured kilometer by kilometer, axis of effort by axis of effort, as the observers say. Russia has claimed progress in the Kupyansk region. Fighting continues near Urozhaine or Robotyne. Ukrainian forces are also trying to gain a foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper, near Kherson…
The other maneuver takes off. It strikes deep into bridges, logistics lines, military infrastructure and, as far as the Russian army is concerned, civilian targets. Two months after the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the front is still more or less frozen. Ukrainian forces are looking for a loophole. The Russians continue their logic of exhaustion of their opponent. The number of dead and wounded continues to increase even if the war is fumbling.
The counter-offensive “is probably progressing more slowly than we would like”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed in an interview with Latin American media. “‘But I know it’s more difficult for the Russians,'” he insisted. “Our people have fatigue in their eyes, but in their eyes there is fear. We will have to endure if we want to win,” he added. The voluntarism of the Head of State, who holds the morale of his people at arm’s length, does not mask the emerging doubts. Wouldn’t the counter-offensive bog down? According to CNN, citing Western officials, the reports from the front are “disappointing”.
Each side seeks to disrupt the other by hitting its rear. Russia tries to paralyze its adversary. Ukraine wants to create tactical opportunities. Not only. On Wednesday, two drones were shot down while flying towards Moscow. The attack is symbolic. A major explosion hit an optical component factory near the Russian capital. The Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical plant also equips the Russian security forces.
The war has strayed, again, far from the front. On Monday evening, Russian missiles hit the city of Pokrovsk, in the Donbass. The Kremlin claims to have targeted a command post. kyiv denounced the bombardment of civilian buildings including a hotel frequented by journalists covering the conflict. On Sunday, in the west of the country, Russia had bombed the Khmelnytsky region, which is home to an air base.
The lack of air support is one of the major shortcomings of Ukrainian operations. On the same day, Ukraine targeted the Chongar bridge in Crimea and another near Henichesk in the same region. Crimea is a political target for Ukraine but also hosts the rear bases of the Russian front. On Saturday, Russia bombed a blood transfusion center.
The moment is particularly difficult for Ukraine, which is trying to turn the tide of the war. Its resources are limited, as is its stock of ammunition. In a defensive position, Russia is playing for time. For months, it has also had time to consolidate its lines of defense. Unable to break through, cross minefields and sneak through enemy electronic jamming, Ukrainian forces are looking for vulnerabilities in the Russian zone. By hitting the logistical axes, they hope to cut off the front of its resources.
“Gradually, war is returning to the territory of Russia, to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely just process,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in late July. The delivery of Scalp or Storm Shadow precision missiles also increased the accuracy of strikes. The extension of the conflict in the occupied zones is part of the Ukrainian strategy to try to influence the Russian posture.
The prospect of regaining ground, on the other hand, is receding or, at the very least, slow to appear. “ The counter-offensive can succeed in several ways ”, nevertheless wrote the analysts of the ISW, who follow the conflict daily, in a note published at the beginning of August. The Ukrainians could achieve “a breakthrough” with the help of mechanized armor. Or else the “tired and demoralized” Russian soldiers could withdraw.
These two scenarios are “ possible but unlikely ”, the authors lucidly believe. This leaves a third hypothesis: “‘A regular campaign of pressure and interdiction backed by major efforts such as those now being deployed can create breaches in Russian lines which Ukrainian forces could exploit first locally and then for deeper penetrations. »
This strategy of slowness, obstinacy and mousehole requires long-term support from Westerners. Ukraine could “thus maintain its pressure until the Russian forces offer cracks on the front line”, writes the ISW. “The slow pressure campaign is aimed at minimizing Ukrainian losses. It is also not focused on attrition of the Russians, but rather on regularly forcing them out of their defensive positions,” explains the ISW. Westerners, short of available military stocks, anxious about the consequences of the war and the exhaustion of their public opinion, would no doubt have preferred a quicker outcome.
