Brussels
On the eve of the extraordinary summit organized by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Thursday, in Abuja (Nigeria), to decide on the way forward after the expiration of an ultimatum posed to the military junta in power in Niger, the concern of the European Union is palpable. As the tension continues to mount. The junta accused France on Wednesday of having “unilaterally freed terrorist prisoners”, and these jihadists, accuse the soldiers of Niamey, would have participated in a “planning meeting” for an attack “on military positions in the zone of the three borders” between Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, in the West of Niger. The junta also accuses France of having violated the closure of Nigerien airspace.
“We are facing a rapidly evolving situation, which is only a few days old, but one thing is certain: there will be no positive consequences if the military coup is allowed to continue and impose on the ground, had declared Tuesday, even before these last declarations, the spokesperson of the head of European diplomacy, Peter Stano. We have seen it in the region, every time a military coup has taken place that has overthrown democratically elected institutions, it has brought security risks and challenges to the region, including difficulties for the international community in its support for the regulation of migratory flows.”
Located in the center of the Sahel, Niger is indeed an important transit point for migrants seeking to reach Europe via Libya. In the aftermath of the Euro-African summit in Valletta (Malta) in 2015, when the EU was going through a serious migration crisis, Niamey positioned itself as the bulwark of the Union’s migration policy, receiving significant funding for control flows and thus reduce the number of irregular migrants. According to figures from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), since 2016, Niger has blocked more than 95,200 migrants, particularly in Assamaka, in the Agadez region, in the north of the country.
However, this partnership of trust seems compromised. Following the July 26 military coup, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, announced the total suspension of activities and the programs put in place with the Nigerien authorities, including those related to border control. “The coup could mark the end of this cooperation with the EU or, in the long term, be renewed depending on the strategic use of the migration issue by the military junta and the positioning of the European authorities”, analyzes Alizée Dauchy, researcher in political science at Saint-Louis University, Belgium.
“What is happening in Niger is more problematic than we think, observes Jean-Pierre Cassarino, from the College of Europe. The destabilization of the country will inevitably have an impact on the European policy to contain irregular migration and to secure its migration policy, implemented in 2015”, continues this migration expert. Especially since the Twenty-Seven, who have not yet met at a high level to discuss the Niger crisis, do not seem to agree on how it should be handled.
Thus, France says it is, for the time being, “concerned” about respecting the democratic rules of the country, when other countries, such as Italy or Hungary, fear above all a new migratory crisis. “The problem of a new wave of immigrants is already a reality,” Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani reacted to the newspaper La Stampa on Monday. Each day that passes without an agreement is made the situation worse. If a war breaks out in Niger, it will be a disaster.”
The subject should in any case be on the agenda of the next meeting of Foreign Ministers, on August 30, then probably that of the Ministers of the Interior, scheduled for the end of September. “The EU is aligned with a very secure vision of migratory flows”, explains Jean-Pierre Cassarino, for whom this prism “will guide political decisions in the weeks to come”.
