General (2S) Dominique Trinquand is a former head of the French military mission to the UN. An expert in international relations, he is a keen observer of the war in Ukraine.
LE FIGARO.- Ukraine claims an attack on Moscow by two drones. Why is kyiv taking on this attack today when it has so far refused to comment?
Dominique TRINQUAND.- The director of Ukrainian intelligence announced a few days ago that he would use all the means at the disposal of the Ukrainian forces to strike Russia in retaliation for the bombardments of Odessa. These drone attacks on Moscow are therefore the realization of this announcement.
Previously, the Ukrainians had not claimed responsibility for the attacks on Moscow. But since the start of the war, we have been walking on eggshells without knowing where the red line is. This line is constantly receding. The latest attacks on Moscow did not elicit excessive comments from Russia. kyiv is therefore going a little further today.
According to Russia, the two drones that arrived in Moscow were neutralized. What about the result of the operation which obviously did not reach its targets?
The drones involved are Beavers, easily recognizable with their large rear wings. They are made by Ukraine, are powered by propellers, and are quite rudimentary. A few months ago no one suspected that Ukraine was capable of striking Russia more than 500 kilometers beyond its border. The exact targets are not known, but one of the two drones fell near the Russian Ministry of Defense (according to the TASS news agency). One could even less have suspected such precision.
This implies that the Russian anti-aircraft device did not work until Moscow. The first times, the Russians could be surprised. But there, and despite the fact that of course Russian territory, like Ukraine, cannot be fully protected, it remains quite extraordinary. The Ukrainians are able not only to cover a great distance in Russian territory, but also to bypass air defenses.
Does this claim mark a turning point in how Ukrainians view war and reclaiming their territory?
No, I think that these strikes on Moscow, and their unprecedented demands, remain more symbolic than anything else. Moreover, these attacks are part of a “special operation”, in the words of the Ukrainians, carried out by the special forces or the security services (SBU).
They are of a different nature than the strikes carried out in Crimea or in occupied Ukrainian territories which demonstrate Ukraine’s increased ability to strike in depth to reduce Russia’s military defense capabilities. The attacks in Moscow are aimed at directly hitting the Russian place of power and thus destabilizing the government. They also aim to send a message to the Russian population who do not necessarily see the war directly in Moscow or Saint Petersburg and live in a bubble.
The two components, offensive operation on the front line with deep strikes and strategic attack directly targeting Russian power are of course complementary and are part of a major military campaign.
The United States has said it does not support kyiv’s latest unclaimed attacks on Moscow. Does Joe Biden fear some form of escalation?
There is a status quo between Russia and the United States. The United States is careful not to provide the means to Ukraine to strike Russia. And the Russians take care to specify each time that the Ukrainian attacks are carried out with Ukrainian weapons. It was also quite striking the first time that kyiv sent drones to Moscow. Russia had condemned by evoking in detail that the drones in question were Beaver manufactured by the Ukrainians.
I think the Russians and the United States know very well that they cannot go to war. During the attacks on Belgorod, images of military equipment used by Russian opponents fighting for Ukraine were filmed. It was American material. The Russians didn’t say a word.
Russia announced that it would respond to these strikes on its capital. As the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalls, will the two sides go toe to toe?
Russian strategic strikes have been taking place from the start. They had been focused on Odesssa for a few days due to the end of the wheat agreement. Russia also sought to target, in retaliation for the attack on the Kerch bridge, the region which undoubtedly houses the underwater drones responsible for the damage to the bridge.
If the strikes continue on kyiv, however, all the missiles have been completely destroyed. The Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense system is therefore more concentrated on kyiv than on Odessa. Obviously, the Ukrainians do not have stretchable means.
