Time passes and every minute that passes diminishes the chances of ever seeing the five occupants of the Titan again. This small tourist submarine lost contact with its carrier vessel as it set out to explore the wreckage of the Titanic last Sunday. However, hope was rekindled overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday when the Canadian P-3 planes managed to pick up sounds at regular intervals, suggesting that the crew was possibly still alive and that they were trying to get hear when tapping on the hull of the submersible. The presence on board of French diver Paul-Henri Nargeolet, 76, renowned as one of the best underwater exploration specialists in the world, is for some the main reason to remain optimistic.

But the rescue, if it took place, would still be a miracle, as the conditions for achieving it seem complicated to meet. The Titan has an autonomy of 96 hours, which means that after noon Thursday, French time, the passengers of the submarine will reach the end of the oxygen reserves. “Time is against them and the first priority is to be certain that these noises are indeed originating from the submarine”, comments Christian Pétron, friend of Paul-Henri Nargeolet, former naval officer and director of photography on the movie The Big Blue. “Which is far from certain.” The commander of the first district of the United States Coast Guard, Rear Admiral John Mauger, also specified that the origin of the noises was still not certified.

“As the Titanic broke up into many metallic pieces over square kilometres, the area is a veritable field of metallic echoes, each similar to what would be produced by the Titan”, comments Bruce Shillito, professor-researcher at Sorbonne University, from the biology of organisms and aquatic ecosystems laboratory, specialist in research in the deep sea. “So even in sonar, the localization work is akin to the needle in the haystack.”

Once the submarine was spotted (if that happened), the rescue operations would still take time. “Sending a submarine like the Nautile to the site would have proven to be counterproductive because it was too time-consuming,” explains Ifremer. We have to rout the nearest ships and make do with their equipment.” The Ifremer oceanographic vessel Atalante was to arrive in the area late Wednesday afternoon, joining a fleet of around ten other vessels. The French ship is equipped with a wired robot (ROV), Victor 6000, capable of descending to 6000 meters. It should be launched Thursday morning, between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. local time, until the ROV “pilots” can be helicoptered on the Atalante. The French machine is added to two other ROVs already on site to scan the seabed. The one that can descend to 4000 m is unfortunately inoperative, and the only one in operation is limited to 3000 m. Armed with two articulated arms, Victor 6000 can be decisive in freeing the lost submarine, if it was stuck under part of the wreckage, or in hooking up a cable or buoys to bring the Titan back to the surface, specifies Ifremer. “Thanks to the presence of a ship equipped with a winch for deep seas, we favor the use of a cable lift, explains Goulwen Peltier, from the Ocean Fleet Department at Ifremer. I have high hopes that we will be able to find the submarine.” “Rescue is complex to organize and it will take a lot of time,” worries Christian Pétron.

On board, the conditions are becoming more and more critical as the minutes go by. The lack of oxygen is the main danger for the occupants. “Paul-Henri’s know-how can save a few hours, judge Christian Pétron. He knows what position to put himself in to save air, but unfortunately I find it hard to believe that it will be enough…” Each breath decreases the vital stock, but also releases CO2, a toxic gas which is captured by crystals of soda lime. “Each sachet of lime has a limited duration of effectiveness, so the bags must be changed regularly, depending on the measurements of the sensors in the passenger compartment, explains Bruce Shillito. To last four days, we are talking about a stock of several kilograms of soda lime.” Another difficulty, the temperature on board the submarine will drop. “At more than 1,000 m deep, the temperature is very stable and homogeneous, between 1 and 4°C, specifies Bruce Shillito. Without heating other than the bodies of the passengers, it is to be feared that it will also be cold inside the cabin after a few hours. In deep scientific submersibles, heating is not provided, as this consumes far too much energy. In normal times, people equip themselves with adequate clothing that can support a dive of several hours. Remember that Paul-Henri Nargeolet, and the four other occupants had initially left for an eight-hour dive…