The hypothesis of power cuts this winter is increasingly plausible. The government will thus send a circular to the prefects to anticipate and prepare their departments for possible scheduled cuts, we learned on Wednesday, November 30, from a government source. This concerns the metropolitan territory, with the exception of Corsica, connected to Italy, and which has its own electricity production. 60% of the population could thus be affected, but no critical site or priority customer.
This situation is caused by the extremely low level of nuclear electricity production. Half of the French reactor fleet is indeed unavailable due to delayed maintenance and corrosion problems. The circular must be used to “finalize the preparation of the country” even if rotating load shedding, of a maximum of two hours, remains at this stage a hypothesis, especially in January if the electricity supply comes to pose a problem. “We would only cut if the cold is confirmed, that we have a problem of production or interconnection (with neighboring countries) and if consumption does not drop”, underlines the same source.
In practice, part of the population will never be offloaded because of priority, or connected by chance to a priority line, “which concerns 40% of people”, according to the government, adding that the load shedding will look like the stains of a ” leopard skin”. There will be no entire department offloaded, but only minority parts of the territory, never the same people twice and none of the approximately 3,800 high-risk patients dependent on home medical equipment connected to the mains.
The circular completes the preparatory work already carried out by the prefectures to protect critical sites from cuts: firefighters, gendarmerie, hospitals, etc. “Obviously when we map even Parisian hospitals, cutting power lines is a puzzle that we don’t know how to solve”, explains a government source to Franceinfo. As many sectors as possible in Paris and in the inner suburbs have however been identified so that Île-de-France contributes to the effort.
In all cases, the cuts would take place at times of peak consumption, between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m. in the morning, and between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. in the evening. As the light is low in winter in the morning, the schools affected by these cuts will remain closed in the morning, in order to avoid being without light, heating or alarm devices, which would put students and teachers in an overly complicated position.
For travellers, the risk is that certain trains or metros will be canceled to avoid having passengers stranded in the middle of the track because the signaling would be cut off: “Either it goes from start to finish, or we would prefer to interrupt two hours, because being stuck two hours on the subway is not an option.” There will be no public lighting in potentially affected areas.
A few industrial sites have also been placed on the lists of priority customers, as have classified facilities with generators which now have one month to test their operation. For emergencies, it will be recommended to give priority to 112. A complex mapping of the white areas where the telephone relay antennas would be cut off is in progress.
There is “a risky situation, but these cuts should not be considered inevitable”, reassured the chairman of the management board of the Electricity transport network (RTE, the French transport network operator), Xavier Piechaczyk, on Franceinfo, recalling the need to lower consumption. Electricity consumption in France also fell by 6.7% last week compared to the average for previous years, a drop “largely concentrated in the industrial sector”, according to the latest report from RTE on Tuesday. This drop, “we are starting to see it in individuals, it shudders (…) of the order of a percent”, added Xavier Piechaczyk.
If the scenario of power cuts materializes, a red EcoWatt signal will be emitted three days in advance, allowing to know one day before which departments will be concerned. Individuals will also be able to enter their address, the day before at 5 p.m., on an Enedis and RTE website to find out if they will be directly affected.
According to another source familiar with the matter, the prefects are asked to present load shedding plans to reduce consumption to 38% in the areas concerned. The interministerial crisis unit is working on the assumption that six to ten two-hour load shedding will be necessary over the period, all affecting six million people at the same time. The cell is also working on a blackout scenario, but without believing in it.
