Historic floods in Pakistan, repeated heat waves in Europe, hurricanes, fires, droughts… The fight for the climate is a “matter of life and death, for our security today and for our survival tomorrow”, insisted recently the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
So the 27th UN Climate Conference (COP27), which begins this Sunday for two weeks, “must lay the foundations for faster and braver climate action, now and in this decade that will decide whether the fight for climate is won or lost,” he warned.
Greenhouse gas emissions must indeed fall by 45% by 2030 to have a chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era, the most ambitious objective of the Paris agreement.
But the current commitments of the signatory states, if they were finally respected, would lead to an increase of 5 to 10%, putting the world on a trajectory of at best 2.4°C by the end of the century. Far from respecting the main objective of the Paris agreement of less than 2°C compared to the time when humans began to burn fossil fuels (coal, oil or gas) responsible for global warming on a large scale.
– “Perilous” –
With current policies, a catastrophic 2.8°C is looming. “Pitifully not up to the task”, castigated Antonio Guterres, who deplores that the climate has been relegated to the background by the Covid epidemic, the war in Ukraine, the economic, energy and food crises.
“There have been perilous times before,” such as the United States’ exit from the Paris agreement under President Donald Trump, notes Alden Meyer of the E3G think tank. But “I’ve never seen anything like it,” adds the longtime observer of climate negotiations, describing a “perfect storm.”
In this context, despite the commitments made at COP26, only around twenty countries have raised their targets, and the UN sees “no credible way” to meet the 1.5°C target.
After the formal opening of COP27 on Sunday, more than 120 heads of state and government are expected on Monday and Tuesday for a summit that is supposed to give impetus to these two weeks of negotiations.
Without Chinese President Xi Jinping or American Joe Biden, who will quickly move on to the COP on November 11. While cooperation is crucial between the two main global emitters of greenhouse gases with strained relations, they could however meet in Bali the following week on the sidelines of the G20.
A G20 responsible for 80% of global emissions but whose richest members are accused of not assuming their responsibilities in terms of ambition and aid to developing countries.
The resentment of the poorest countries, not responsible for global warming but on the front line of its impacts, will also be at the heart of COP27.
– Greenwashing –
The promise of the countries of the North to increase to 100 billion dollars per year from 2020 their aid to the countries of the South to reduce their emissions and prepare for the impacts has still not been kept. And the South is now calling for additional funding dedicated to the “loss and damage” already suffered.
But the developed countries are very reluctant, and last year only agreed to the creation of a “dialogue” on the question, planned until 2024. They should however concede that the subject is officially on the agenda of the day in Sharm el-Sheikh.
“Everyone agrees that we need a way to fix it. The difficulty is in the details,” said Wael Aboulmagd, special representative of the Egyptian presidency of COP27.
“The success or failure of COP27 will be judged on an agreement on this loss and damage financing facility,” warned Munir Akram, Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN and chairman of the G77 China, which represents more than 130 emerging and poor countries.
Agreement or not on a special mechanism to finance “losses and damages” or on a new objective to take over from 100 billion from 2025, the financing needs are counted in “billions of billions”, tells AFP Michai Robertson, negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis), judging that this will be impossible without the private sector.
Private sector commitments will also be in the spotlight with the publication of the report of the UN group of experts responsible for developing standards to assess the carbon neutrality objectives of companies, cities, regions or investors.
Because “our world can no longer afford greenwashing, pretense and latecomers”, stressed Antonio Guterres.
