Energy-related CO2 emissions could begin to fall by the end of the decade, after reaching their “high point” in 2025. This potential acceleration of the energy transition would be partly caused by the increase in investments in sustainable energies caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is the conclusion of the report of the International Energy Agency (IAE) of Thursday, October 27, which analyzes each year the effect of markets and public policies on the energy system, and their consequences on the climate.
For the first time, the central scenario of this OECD-based agency identifies a plateau of consumption of each of the fossil fuels – coal, gas, and oil – largely responsible for climate change, since they represent 85% of emissions of CO2 in the world. It predicts that energy-related CO2 emissions will peak at 37 billion tonnes in 2025, before gradually declining to 32 billion in 2050.
Victory is very relative. Because despite these efforts, average temperatures would increase, compared to pre-industrial levels, by 2.5 degrees by 2100, according to the IAE. This scenario, confirmed by a United Nations study published on October 26, is much higher than the objective of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees implemented by the Paris Agreement in 2015, to avoid catastrophic consequences on ecosystems. and for humans.
This prospect, however, represents a “historic turning point in the ecological transition”, estimates the IAE in its report, and it would be partly due to the global energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This leads to “profound and long-term changes that have the potential to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system”, assures the agency.
As governments struggle to diversify their energy sources and gain energy self-sufficiency, some states, such as the UK under the short-lived presidency of Liz Truss, had announced increased fossil fuel extraction to ensure affordable energy access for all. But many others are currently studying an acceleration of their structural changes towards clean energies. The central scenario of the IAE is based in particular on the commitments already announced by governments in terms of climate investments, such as the “Inflation reduction act” in the United States, the “Fit for 55” and “RePowerEu” in Europe, and “Green transformation” in Japan.
This announced acceleration is however subject to numerous conditions. For it to be effective, global investments in green (solar, wind) or carbon-free (nuclear) energies will have to reach 2 billion dollars per year by 2030. And to reach net zero emissions in 2050, they should increase to $4 billion a year. The IAE also stresses the need to accelerate investment in automotive electric batteries, or electrolyzers that will produce hydrogen intended to decarbonize the industry.
Eight days before the World Climate Conference (COP27) in Egypt, the agency nevertheless warns against the “fractures” between rich and poor countries in terms of investment in low-carbon energies. She calls for a “major international effort” to “reduce” this “worrying gap”.
