The subject will be on the table at the next UN climate conference, COP27, in early November in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Floods, droughts and heat waves are affecting crops from Europe to Asia, threatening famine in the Horn of Africa. And experts warn that this could be just the start.
“If we don’t act now, this is just a sample of what could happen,” warns Mamadou Goita, an expert with the IPES-Food group, which works with farmers’ organizations in Africa and around the world.
Food production is both an important source of emissions, contributing to global warming, and it is also very exposed to the effects of climate change: in the long term (lower yields, warming of the oceans, seasonal shifts in pollinators/plants or excess heat for agricultural workers), but also in the short term.
Floods can cause “sudden devastation to livelihoods and infrastructure,” said Rachel Bezner Kerr, professor at American Cornell University and lead author of the IPCC (UN climate experts) report on climate impacts.
– Kimchi crisis –
The year 2022 offers dramatic illustrations of this.
Heat waves affected crops across South Asia, drought ravaged crops in Europe, heat devastated cabbage crops in South Korea, triggering a “kimchi crisis”. Floods have submerged rice fields in Nigeria and in China, drought has hit the Yangtze River Basin, home to a third of the nation’s crops. Authorities sent drones to “seed” the clouds and try to attract rain.
The most vulnerable are the hardest hit.
Some 22 million people are at risk of famine in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, according to the UN’s World Food Programme, after four rainy seasons… with no rain.
“It’s as if our report was happening in real time,” comments Ms. Bezner Kerr.
In Pakistan, dramatic floods linked to an extraordinary monsoon have swallowed up large areas of agricultural land, ravaging staple crops such as rice, tomatoes and onions.
In Mirpur Khas district in the agricultural province of Sindh, water submerged Akbar Rajar’s cotton crop. “We are in persistent danger”, laments this heavily indebted farmer, who is about to sow wheat in soggy soil.
Up to nine million people could be pushed into poverty by the disaster, according to the World Bank.
– Speculative “frenzy” –
Crises can lead to export restrictions, such as those imposed this year by India when its wheat crop suffered from a heat wave. Speculation and the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine have not helped, causing the price of fertilizers to rise, for example.
One of the solutions is money, especially for small farmers on the “front lines” of climate change and food insecurity, according to Claire McConnell of think tank E3G. Only 2% of climate finance reaches them, according to the expert.
Another major issue is the reduction of emissions. Because food production will become “impossible” in certain regions if global warming continues on its current trajectory, according to the IPCC.
Redirecting billions of dollars in agricultural subsidies that harm the environment and the climate would be a real lever, according to Ms Bezner Kerr.
People in rich countries could reduce their meat consumption and thus the use of cereals to feed livestock, which often contributes to deforestation. And nations around the world could vary their diets beyond the usual rice, corn, wheat or potatoes.
Which could make sense in Egypt, host of COP27, where the majority of imported wheat is subsidized by the state. This keeps the bread cheap.
But these solutions have their limits.
“How do you produce a variety that, even after being under water for a few days, is still resistant?” asks Nabeel Munir, the Pakistani diplomat who chairs the main negotiating bloc of developing countries in the climate negotiations.
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