Emmanuel Lincot is a professor at the Institut Catholique de Paris, sinologist and associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
LE FIGARO. – During his television interview on Monday July 24, Emmanuel Macron spoke of China’s “increasingly strong” influence in New Caledonia, where he is on the move. Why did the head of state even briefly point out the Chinese presence?
EMMANUEL LINCOT. – I think it is related to an observation: China has been increasingly present in the Pacific region since the end of the 1990s. At the very moment when France abandoned its nuclear tests in New Caledonia, then largely abandoned this region. As nature abhors a vacuum, China has developed all-out relations with many states in Oceania.
This expansion of China suggests, in the long term, a risk for France of being increasingly marginalized to the benefit of Chinese interests. Even if, I believe, this fear must be put into perspective because people are gradually realizing the dangers of an alliance with China. Like Sri Lanka, which fell into the trap of over-indebtedness.
What interests does New Caledonia represent for China?
Various resources that make up this overseas territory are attracting the attention of China. First of all, there is nickel, which is extremely important for the industries of the future in the aeronautics and defense sectors. The Asian country is seeking to diversify its nickel supplies, which are as essential as uranium, for example.
In a desire to open up, China more broadly covets the entire maritime area, which makes France the second maritime power in the world. Of course, there are fish resources, knowing that China is the biggest consumer of fish in the world. Without forgetting the resources which are not yet exploitable for technical reasons, but which could be in the years to come, such as the nodules which are at the bottom of the oceans.
All this confirms to France an exceptional and enviable situation, including on the geostrategic level. New Caledonia is located in the heart of the Pacific, therefore passageways which are necessary in particular for the transport of lithium exploited by the Chinese in South America. Beyond the French positions alone, there is also the rivalry of the “two Chinas”, China and Taiwan, which has extended its influence to four Pacific islands.
The Chinese project of the new silk roads is also opposed to the European project to which Emmanuel Macron has subscribed, the Global Gateway project. Through this programme, the objective of the European Union is to respond precisely to this competition.
How does China concretely impose itself on the overseas terrain?
First of all, the Chinese discourse seduces the indigenous, Caldoches or Polynesian populations who still see themselves as colonized. Even if the non-independenceists seem to have been the majority in the votes of the referendums, which confirmed New Caledonia as French territory, the separatists refuse to recognize it. This status quo situation is quite dangerous and can benefit the Chinese.
Caledonians are also fascinated by China’s economic success. Very poor 40 years ago, this country is now the second largest economy in the world. The Chinese model that does not say its name is the key to success. Nevertheless, it faces major economic problems since 20% of 18-25 year olds are unemployed. People are therefore beginning to reflect and take a more critical look at the situation, in particular at the image of Xi Jinping as a dictator who does not hesitate to purge his entourage, the army and diplomacy.
Thus, China relies heavily on the Chinese diaspora as a means of pressure and lever of influence in New Caledonia and French Polynesia. This Chinese population settled there from the 19th century, sometimes coming from Vietnam during the periods of French colonization. Twenty years ago, the majority of this diaspora was rather acquired in Taiwan. From now on, she has a great sensitivity to the Beijing discourse.
The influence of local independence parties is also important. If we do not have formal proof that China subsidizes them financially, these political elites are openly invited to Beijing for international conferences, for example. All sorts of in-kind facilities that make it possible to reconcile with the local populations.
Can we talk about interference?
The word is strong. If there was interference in the legal sense of the term, there would be a violation of French sovereignty. However, it is not the case. On the other hand, it is clear that certain States have chosen their side. Like the Solomon Islands which signed security agreements in 2022. When you look at the map, these islands are between New Caledonia and French Polynesia. We might fear what strategists call the “lotus strategy”: China takes root in a central place, the petals of the lotus eventually bloom and spread their power to influence outlying regions.
We could fear this scenario, unless there is a French and European surge in this vital region for the world economy and Western interests. But in my opinion, it is not with Emmanuel Macron that we will have these kinds of declarations or decisions.
So what is France’s strategy to deal with this China?
It offers a counter model to that of China. Emmanuel Macron wants to protect biodiversity in a logic of polyculture while Xi Jinping leads a policy of massive destruction of forests. The French president wants to diversify the Caledonian cultures in order to limit the dependence of the populations on the metropolis, but also for an economic purpose. From this point of view, it is a smart way to oppose China without ever saying so explicitly.
France also has a desire to support local populations, still bruised by nuclear tests, and to be exemplary, unlike China, or even the United States. We must all the same salute that this is the first time that a president of the Fifth Republic has conceived of France as an archipelago.
This presidential trip to New Caledonia therefore sends a strong symbol. Other populations and ruling elites of other countries, notably Taiwan, will thus observe this visit very carefully. Emmanuel Macron’s interest in these regions will inevitably have a positive echo in Taiwan. However, it is still too early to know the consequences on New Caledonia, but obviously this trip will have an impact.
