After the heating transition had long since begun in many other countries, Germany is also starting to decarbonize heat generation. But this happens with a considerable delay, thanks to the self-imposed dependence on supposedly cheap gas from Russia. In most cases, the heat pump is the method of choice, and rightly so. The devices are becoming more and more sophisticated. In the future, the heat generator could even find a place in a fitted kitchen next to the dishwasher.
Despite the exceptions that have now been decided, the new heating rules result in a de facto obligation to use heat pumps. The federal government is thus taking the second step before the first, which could end up damaging acceptance and even the climate. First of all, the timing is abysmal.
After two years of pandemic and a year of war with record inflation, many citizens are financially overburdened. This also applies to tenant households, which have to bear the high heating conversion costs. Construction prices are currently high, and there is a shortage of around 60,000 installers in the trades. From 2024, instead of 240,000 heat pumps per year, around 700,000 devices are to be installed at once, often in complicated structural conditions in existing buildings. How is this supposed to work?
In the Greens-led Ministry of Economics, the idea of market design by means of obligations and prohibitions is in the foreground. However, the state is neglecting its own homework: the heating networks in Germany are poorly developed, monopolistic and expensive. There is a lack of long-term storage for the green electricity generated in summer so that the energy can also be used in the winter months.
This is not possible with wind power alone. Thanks to the nuclear phase-out, the German electricity mix is highly CO₂-polluted in winter. There is also a lack of line capacity, and homeowners often cannot even connect a wall box. In densely built-up districts, suppliers would have to build green mini power plants.
Instead, the government is now putting the heat pump end device at the beginning of the chain of action and hopes that the rest will be sorted out somehow. This is the wrong order. That’s why we’re now getting hastily and inefficiently installed heat pumps, which are powered by coal-fired electricity.
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