The number of liver cancers in the world could increase by 55% by 2040, unless a more active fight against the disease. A study published on October 6, in the “Journal of Hepatology”, a scientific journal evaluated and recognized by its peers, warns against these alarming figures, calculated on the basis of data collected in 185 countries.
In 2020, more than 905,000 people were diagnosed with liver cancer, and 830,200 of them died from it, say scientists from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), a branch of the Organization World Health Organization (WHO) based in Lyon. According to the study, liver cancer was among the top three cancers causing death in 46 countries, and the top five cancers responsible for death in 90 countries.
At the current rate, the authors project that 1.4 million people will be diagnosed and 1.3 million will die of liver cancer by 2040. These figures are calculated based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 , and world population projections to 2040.
That would represent an increase of about 500,000 a year in both the number of cases and the number of deaths, “unless we achieve a substantial decrease in liver cancer rates through primary prevention,” he said. IARC epidemiologist Harriet Rumgay, lead author of the study, told AFP.
More than half of the diagnosed cases and deaths attributed to liver cancer in 2020 took place in East Asia. However, “rates have increased in many low-incidence countries around the world, such as the United States, Australia and several European countries,” the scientists warn.
The aggravating factors are age and gender, with men being more affected in all countries providing data. Hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) infections also represent the most important external risk factor in triggering liver cancer. “Recent studies suggest that about 56% of liver cancers are HBV-related and 20% are HCV-related,” the scientists point out.
“This cancer is largely preventable if control efforts are made – the main risk factors being hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, alcohol consumption, excess weight and conditions metabolic disorders, including type 2 diabetes,” study co-author Isabelle Soerjomataram said in a statement. Smoking is also cited as an important cause.
The study’s grim prediction illustrates the need to step up progress to tackle hepatitis B and C, which have been held back by the Covid-19 pandemic, the researchers said, calling for more vaccinations, testing and treatments. They also plead for more policies directed against alcohol consumption, and the development of a strategy to curb diabetes and obesity in the world, both of which are on the rise.
