economic activity falls slowly but surely head. According to the information available to 17 June, the Insee estimates that the economy habs would be 12 per cent below its pre-crisis level for a full month, compared to 16% in march, 29 % in April and 22 % in may. This estimate, higher by two points to that of two weeks ago, is explained “in particular, by the good conduct of the déconfinement on the health plan and the loosening of gradual measures for the containment of the economy,” says Insee.

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The continuation of the recovery observed in all branches. In the construction, the construction sites have taken over and possible to divide by approximately two the loss of activity, which is now limited to one-third compared to may. Same observation in the industry where the delay in production compared to normal is now down to 15 %, against a quarter in may. “The traffic of freight rail, an indicator of global activity continues to recover gradually, reflecting this clarification-general of the economic landscape,” says Insee, which reported a level close to 85 % of this data, compared to 63% in full containment.

Trips upward

Other data that allows to measure the magnitude and the speed of the resumption of work on the territory: the travelling early morning, which can be likened to journeys from home to the workplace and accounted for during the confinement one-fourth of their volume as usual, went up to about 60 % compared to their level in the beginning of February.

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A gradual increase, which translates to “without a doubt, the maintenance of a large part of telecommuting for certain occupations and in certain territories,” notes the Insee. The loss of activity in market services fell to a level identical with that in the industry, but with a prospect of more rapid rise in the weeks to come, as a number of closures or limitations have been lifted or eased on the 14th of June last.

In the end, economic activity would decline about 17 % in the second quarter of 2020, not 20 % as Insee had estimated three weeks ago, after a GDP decline of 5.3% in the first quarter. This upward revision, says the institute of statistics, “is also due to the availability of new indicators that are hard on the month of April” that led to its statisticians to refine the photography of the impact of the confinement on the set of the French economy.

Transactions by bank cards maintained

If the industrial production and household consumption have been lower in April for a third party to their pre-crisis level, order of magnitude so early, services to businesses have suffered losses of a little less than expected in the heart of the economic storm. Ditto – and it’s a good surprise – on the aggregate amounts of transactions by bank cards that happen to be much better than expected.

The mountain of information available appears to suggest that the strong rebound seen after the déconfinement may 11 (with a loss limited to 7 % compared to the pre-crisis level, compared to 31% in April) seems to be sustainable, with a loss of consumption of 5 % in June compared to the normal.

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If the prospects are rather to the upside in the very short term, the Insee does, however, warn against any triumphalism premature. “This finding does not predict when the economy will be returned to its pre-crisis level”, says the institute. And this is because of an international environment which remains uncertain with the threat of a second wave epidemic that continues to soar in some countries, including China”.