Imran Khan escaped an assassination attempt on Thursday as he led a march bringing together several thousand of his supporters between Lahore and the capital Islamabad, to obtain the holding of early elections, the first step in his reconquest expected from power.
Wounded by bullets in the legs, the former Prime Minister accused his successor Shehbaz Sharif, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and General Faisal Nasir, a senior intelligence official, of having fomented this attack aimed at killing him and to blame it on a “religious fanatic”.
“The political situation in Pakistan has entered a dangerous phase,” analyst Tauseef Ahmed Khan told AFP.
This expert, also a member of the office of the Commission on Human Rights of Pakistan, believes that “in a country with a history of political chaos, noises are repeated”.
Imran Khan, although ousted from power in April, still enjoys popular support and is battling a slew of complaints from the incumbent government.
But the government, for its survival, depends more and more on its powerful army – often qualified as “deep state”, a dependence which increases with the pressure, according to the expert.
“It is a perilous situation – not only for the democratic process but also for the country – particularly with regard to economic development,” he said.
Because the “problems of poverty, hunger and development take a back seat”.
– “Chaos, despair, disappointment” –
MM. Khan and Sharif have been at each other’s throats for months, accusing each other of incompetence and corruption, with contemptuous language and tone.
But such a public accusation by Mr. Khan, who names a senior military official by name, reaches an unprecedented level.
Because Mr. Khan does not provide any evidence to support his accusations, which the government has also dismissed as “lies and fabrications”.
Criticizing the army – which has ruled the country half of its 75-year history – has always been a red line not to be crossed, but Mr Khan does not hesitate to do so, using more and more vehemence to with regard to the military authorities from which he would nevertheless derive his initial rise to power.
In a statement released on Friday, the army urged the government to bring a libel suit against Mr Khan.
Officials of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), are also in the line of fire.
Some have already been prosecuted for “sedition” and other charges since Mr Khan’s departure from power, as well as journalists considered close to the former prime minister.
“It now appears that an operation could be launched against the PTI,” warned expert Ahmed Khan, stressing that the party could split.
If the huge demonstrations of support for the former leader tend to show his opponents and the army that he has the public’s favor, the result could be “chaos, despair and disappointment”, adds the analyst.
In such a charged climate, the multiple accusations and denials on both sides are unlikely to be properly investigated, said Kaiser Bengali, another political analyst based in Karachi.
And that leaves room for conspiracy theories, he says.
“The state has lost its legitimacy (…as well as) the police, the law and other institutions – even the judiciary,” he observes.
The army “is wondering what went wrong and what they can do” now, adds the expert.
– “Petty” fight for “crumbs” –
The government denied any involvement in the assassination attempt, which it attributed to a single assailant from a poor village, motivated by religious considerations.
Pakistan has struggled for decades with violent Islamist movements, which have a strong influence on a large part of the Muslim-majority population.
Imran Khan claims his opponents accuse him of having “defiled the religion or the prophet”.
“Religious extremism is a weapon that the PTI uses – as well as the army and the state,” said Mr. Bengali. “We are therefore heading towards an immensely dangerous situation”.
But behind the political crisis hides an even more pervasive crisis: the economic crisis.
“The state is bankrupt, all the resources it has are spent on debt servicing, defense, and government salaries,” the analyst added.
“Whatever crumbs are available, politicians fight (for what’s left)…that’s why the fight has become so petty.”
