This Sunday, more than 6.6 million Andalusians will vote in the elections for the Board. This is too large a number for big parties to ignore its national impact. Andalusia, with 61 deputies and 17.4%, is the largest community to the Congress of Deputies. Although tonight’s count won’t allow us to predict the outcome of the next general election, it can provide clues about how severe the climate for cycle change is six months before a new electoral year begins. It could even be increased.
This Sunday, Alberto Nunez Feijoo will have the opportunity to reinforce the belief that his appointment as head of the PP significantly improves his party’s expectations. Castilla y Leon elections in February were held with Pablo Casado still as president of the formation. They proved to be a failure for the hopes of the popular, despite Alfonso Fernandez Manueco’s victory. The idea behind the early elections was to end Ciudadanos’s role as a partner in a coalition and get an absolute majority. Although the first thing was achieved, the popular ones had to share the Government and Vox, which is a less comfortable ally.
The Andalusian polls have set a precedent for 2018
Ciudadanos supports the PP in its governance.
citizens
21
PSOE
33
PP
26
55 Absolute majority
Forward Andalusia*
Vox
12
17
Total seats: 109
*Before splitting into two candidates
Results by province
Cordoba (12)
Jaen (11)
Huelva (11)
Sevilla (18)
Granada (13)
Almeria (12).
Malaga (17)
Cadiz (15)
The most popular party
The most popular party in each capital according to poll results
Evolution of the percentage vote of the main parties (in%)
52.56
50.36
PSOE
50
40
38.71
30
27.95
31.78
34.36
20.75
17.03
20
18.27
IU
PP
AA
19.14
16.17
17.88
10
Cs
10.96
VOX
7.51
0
’82
’86
’90
’94
’96
’00
’04
’08
’12
’15
’18
GRAFICO S.I.B.
Source: Junta de Andalucia
The Andalusian polls have set a precedent for 2018
Socialists win but the PP wins with support from Ciudadanos
citizens
21
PSOE
33
PP
26
55 Absolute majority
Forward Andalusia*
Vox
12
17
Total seats: 109
*Before splitting into two candidates
Results by province
Cordoba (12)
Jaen (11)
Huelva (11)
Sevilla (18)
PSOE
PP
Cs
AA
VOX
Granada (13)
Almeria (12).
Malaga (17)
Cadiz (15)
The most popular party in each capital according to poll results
The most popular party
Evolution of the percentage vote of the main parties (in%)
52.56
50.36
PSOE
50
40
38.71
27.95
30
31.78
34.36
20.75
17.03
20
18.27
IU
PP
AA
19.14
16.17
17.88
Cs
10
10.96
VOX
7.51
0
1982
’86
’90
’94
’96
2000
’04
’08
’12
’15
’18
GRAFICO S.I.B.
Source: Junta de Andalucia
The precedent
The Andalusian polls of 2018
Socialists win but the PP wins with support from Ciudadanos
citizens
21
PSOE
PP
33
26
55 Absolute majority
Forward Andalusia*
Vox
12
17
Total seats: 109
*Before splitting into two candidates
Results by province
Cordoba (12)
Jaen (11)
Huelva (11)
Sevilla (18)
PSOE
PP
Cs
AA
VOX
Granada (13)
Almeria (12).
Malaga (17)
Cadiz (15)
The most popular party in each capital according to poll results
The most popular party
Evolution of the percentage vote of the main parties (in%)
52.56
50.36
PSOE
38.71
27.95
31.78
34.36
20.75
17.03
18.27
IU
PP
19.14
AA
17.88
16.17
Cs
10.96
VOX
7.51
1982
1986
1990
1994
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2015
2018
GRAFICO S.I.B.
Source: Junta de Andalucia
The precedent
The Andalusian polls of 2018
Socialists win but the PP wins with support from Ciudadanos
citizens
21
PSOE
PP
33
26
55 Absolute majority
Forward Andalusia*
Vox
12
17
Total seats: 109
*Before splitting into two candidates
Results by province
Cordoba (12)
Jaen (11)
Huelva (11)
Sevilla (18)
PSOE
PP
Cs
AA
VOX
Granada (13)
Almeria (12).
Malaga (17)
Cadiz (15)
The most popular party in each capital according to poll results
The most popular party
Evolution of the percentage vote of the main parties (in%)
52.56
50.36
PSOE
38.71
27.95
31.78
34.36
20.75
17.03
18.27
IU
PP
19.14
AA
17.88
16.17
Cs
10.96
VOX
7.51
1982
1986
1990
1994
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2015
2018
GRAFICO S.I.B.
Source: Junta de Andalucia
Andalusia has a different look. Despite the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty about participation and fragmentation in the vote, amid a heat wave with provinces like Seville and Granada connected by Corpus Christi bridges, it can cause notable oscillations. However, all polls indicate a clear victory for Juanma Mostno. The popular candidates have felt shaken by fear of a lack of confidence leaving their people.
Vox may be forced to enter into a pact – although it is less likely than originally thought, this will still improve the PP’s 2018 results. Santiago Abascal, his candidate Macarena Olona have made it clear that the PP will not need one of its seats to pass the investiture. However, they will insist on being admitted to the Executive. The popular ones are so close to the absolute majority (55 parliamentarians) that they will not be able to fulfill the threat of being seen as obstructionist forces at the moment of truth.
Moreno wants 50 seats. Feijoo will be victorious if he achieves it or closes the gap. His party model was visible in this campaign. Despite being in Andalusia for six consecutive days, the president of PP has not interfered. He has only been with Juanma moreno in one act. He did not attend Friday’s closing so that the Andalusian leader could have all the protagonism. This is contrary to what Manueco experienced. In addition, the bet was for a less ideological, transversal, and centrist discourse, which, according to polls, has allowed popular support to grow to the right and left, and even to get votes from abstention.
They aren’t fooled by the PSOE and take the defeat to Juan Espadas as a given. Recent messages from the Government have attempted to minimize the impact of the setback. Sanchez will have a difficult time winning the general elections if the PP seizes from socialism its hegemony in Andalusia that it has held for nearly 37 years. This is because this community seems to have lost their fear of the left. Voices were already urging for a revival to gain momentum before the end of campaign. The president is focused on the NATO summit in Spain, which Spain hosts in ten short days, despite rumors of a reshuffle of the government. His future goals are in moderation of inflation by 2023.
Whatever happens, regardless of whether the debacle surpasses expectations or whether Swords holds him better than the polls suggest. According to close sources, the Chief Executive’s decision is to keep him in power and to try to stop any internal revolt. They claim that “the decision has been made.” The party claims that the pledge to Sanchez, the former mayor of Seville, was always “six year ahead” and that it would not be necessary for the organization to start a new organic struggle in less than one year.
Things look grim for the PSOE to the left. YolandaDiaz’s project, which Sanchez will need to join next year, has had a pilot test in Por Andalucia. Although the vice president was involved in the campaign, it instilled spirit in the members. She started the campaign on the wrong foot because of the fights that occurred at her time of registration. It remains to be seen if she has managed to mobilize a vote.