According to calculations by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the current severe wave of influenza could cause up to 40 billion euros in economic costs if it lasts for a long time. “The German economy could lose more than 30 billion euros in gross value added due to illness-related work losses alone, and in the case of a very unfavorable course even more than 40 billion euros,” says the calculation of the IfW, the WELT AM SONNTAG exclusive present.
According to the IfW, how high the costs due to the loss of work actually are depends largely on the duration of the influenza wave. In a pessimistic scenario, the institute expects it to last until the third week of April 2023 and the disease level to then be 50 percent higher than in the last severe flu wave in 2017/18.
In this scenario, up to 650,000 cases of influenza would be feared. According to the IFW, gross national income could fall by more than 40 billion euros if this scenario were to occur.
