Russian President Vladimir Putin meets in Paris today with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodimir Selenski. Here are the answers to the main questions for the Meeting are.
there Is hope for an end to the war in Eastern Ukraine? at Least the odds were long as well. The parties have been negotiating for weeks behind the Scenes, the basic positions are outlined. Such a high-level Meeting with the French President, Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to convey, is recognised in the rule only, if there is to announce later on, even if it probably won’t be the great peace. The last Meeting in the ‘Normandy Format’ took place more than three years ago. Further talks do not materialize, because it was just to discuss nothing.
What is different today? The new Ukrainian President Selenski promised in the election campaign, to end the war in the East. The last few weeks he has made concrete concessions: The prisoners were exchanged, at three points, the troops from the armistice line have been withdrawn. In addition, Kiev has repaired a bombed-out bridge, the only connection between the rebel region of Luhansk and the Ukrainian government territory. The sounds unspectacular. However, the important progress that mark a new course: Selenskis predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, had deepened with his increasingly nationalist rhetoric in the trenches always more.
What to look out could be in Paris? A truce and a further exchange of prisoners, for example. Ukraine stressed that it is first and foremost a tool to facilitate the lot of the people in the war zone. The aims, the confidence of the people in the East to regain and not have to isolate you any longer. How far you will come up with the political settlement of the conflict, so in fact the implementation of the Minsk peace agreement, is unclear. Both sides in this issue cautious.
13’000 people have been killed in the Fighting: Pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk. Photo: Keystone
What are the sticking points? in Particular, in the Minsk agreement provided for elections in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, controlled by Pro-Russian rebels. A Problem, the agreed autonomy for the Region. Kiev wants to return to first, the control of rebel areas before elections are held. Moscow insists, however, that the autonomy will be decided. The Minsk agreement, the order does not specify clearly. To find a compromise that will be difficult.
How willing to compromise the Ukraine? Selenski is clearly willing to compromise – and without which it will not go well. He still has a majority of the country behind, even if his Rating has dropped significantly. Yesterday thousands marched in the street and warned the President against a “surrender”. In particular, they are against a special status for the rebel regions within Ukraine. One of the leaders of the protests, Ex-President Poroshenko, which is not without a certain irony: He has signed 2014/15 the Minsk agreement, which writes the elections and the autonomy scheme.
The Europeans want to solve the conflict at last, and the pressure of the mediators on the Ukraine is high.
Will give in to Putin? Putin is willing to put up with Selenski together, that’s already something. He seems to be currently interested to establish a dialogue with Ukraine, but also with the Europeans in gear. The war in Eastern Ukraine for him is costly. Although he wants to exercise more influence on the Ukraine, especially with regard to its Alliance policy, but he could have also cheaper. The decisive factor will be what is offered from the West for a meet. It is expected to go on the one hand, to an easing of sanctions, on the other hand, but also the Status of the annexed Crimea.
What goals have Merkel and Macron? The Europeans want to solve the conflict at last, and the pressure of the mediators on the Ukraine is high. Macron has made in the last few weeks that he wants to improve relations with Russia and the sanctions will cancel. And Merkel is interested in the business: it is in favour of the Pipeline, Nord Stream 2, which will bring the middle of next year, Russian natural gas directly to Germany. So far, the Gas flowed, particularly over Ukraine, the transport charges are an important source of income for Kiev. Putin has promised to keep this old Route is open. The extension of the gas contract between Moscow and Kiev is also a theme in Paris.
How could it go further? A continuation of the policy of small steps would be a success. However, the political deadlock would have to be concrete steps for the implementation of the Minsk agreement, agreed broken. Failing that, there is the danger that the willingness to compromise fizzles, and the conflict that has already cost more than 13’000 people, the life still goes on for years.
Created: 09.12.2019, 14:10 PM
