Is kyiv trying to take advantage of the chaotic situation in Russia after Wagner’s coup this weekend? Or is it another planned step of the counteroffensive? Since Sunday, June 25, fighting has been ongoing on the left bank of the Dnieper, occupied by the Russians, near the destroyed Antonivka bridge, upstream from the city of Kherson. Several sources, pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian, announce that a group of Ukrainian fighters has crossed the river and is trying to establish a bridgehead in the area.
In a dated and geolocated video, widely relayed on social networks, a Russian BTR-82A opens fire on Ukrainian positions, along the occupied bank, and tries to evacuate a Russian infantry unit. On Telegram, the governor of the Kherson region installed by Moscow, Volodymyr Saldo, confirmed “several attempts by small groups of enemies” to cross the Dnieper. But it indicates that these units were “destroyed”.
The situation there is still unclear, and Ukraine would only have a handful of soldiers at the moment. The various analysts and bloggers of the conflict estimate the Ukrainian forces in the area at a hundred soldiers, and evoke losses on the Russian side, forcing the troops in Moscow to withdraw. But the success of this operation over time depends on the number of fighters and equipment that Ukraine is able to get across, as well as the speed of this operation.
Because traditionally, river crossing operations are particularly vulnerable to artillery and enemy aviation. Ukraine has a large number of small troop transport barges, recalls Joseph Henrotin, editor-in-chief of the journal Defense and International Security. But the latter do not have the capacity to cross heavy equipment, such as tanks, underlines the researcher. It will therefore no doubt be necessary to establish pontoons, which could become easy prey for Russia.
The establishment of a bridgehead on the occupied bank of the Dnieper would, on the other hand, open up real prospects for the Ukrainians. The route to Melitopol, and hence the Sea of Azov, would open up. As well as that towards the Crimea. Since the beginning of the war, the Dnieper has become a natural border, which protects the areas occupied by Russia. Passing this obstacle certainly does not guarantee a quick reconquest of Kherson Oblast. But it would be a remarkable step forward.