All indicators are pointing in the same direction. Housing construction falls steeply. 2017 began 64.000 apartments. The overall picture in the market analysis Veidekke publishes today shows that the construction will fall to around 35.000–40.000 housing. It means close to a halving of the number of housing starts compared with the surge in 2016 and 2017.
Veidekkes analysis also shows that the construction of rental housing turns down, especially in the municipalities in recent years has stimulated the construction of rental properties.
Sweden is one of the few countries that have introduced restrictions, but to allow specific solutions for younger and first-time buyers, in the form of higher mortgage ceiling, subsidized bosparande and launch loans. The sooner the Swedish politicians realize that this is the solution also for us, the more quickly will the housing crisis to be brought to a solution.
the Question is what will happen forward. Statistics SWEDEN and the Swedish authorities expect that the construction should turn up again in a few years. However, there are three circumstances that indicate that the fall may continue and that the recovery will take a long time:
the Last time housing collapsed, it was in the 1990s, after the deep financial and real estate crisis. The crisis was triggered by a hastily implemented skatteomläggning as increased housing costs, in combination with the state housing finance was abolished and responsibility for funding was transferred to the banks, households and real estate companies.
Seen in the rear view mirror it is obvious that the transition was carried out without deeper assessment. Experience from other countries shows that when fundamental changes are implemented, they must be balanced by other measures. If the households should bear the responsibility, they must be able to borrow. Required equity, it is advantageous if the thinly capitalised offered specific solutions and to support households to build up a savings capital.
The mistake that was made in the 1990s was that the type of actions never materialized. Thus limited household demand and the building fell. But now a new factor had been added. When the financial supervisory authority (FI) describes the property companies ‘ debt and bostadsutvecklarnas business models as a problem is this a harbinger of a shift from borrowed capital to equity.
In connection with FI presented its financial stability report highlighted that it would be possible to introduce the corresponding type of restrictions on real estate companies that have already been introduced to the households. But this are already visible traces of the soft power that the FI in the quiet continuous exercising against the banks. Smaller and medium-sized builders are required to include in the day is often a säljgrad up to 80 per cent, against the earlier 50 per cent, in order to get byggkreditiv. Real estate companies that build rental units for their own management, today can seldom borrow more than 55-60 per cent.
: A gradual shift from borrowed capital to equity means an almost equally large system change that when the state transferred responsibility to the market. As a result, the inferior competition when weaker players are knocked out, but above all, the construction of housing to reduce the.
A hot potato in the debate is what caused both the fall in price as the reduced housing construction. In the market report that Veidekke presented in april examined the matter and it turned out that increased the range to play some role, especially in some local markets. Decidedly the greatest impact, however, nor credit restrictions imposed.
As is known, shows off the Swedish financial supervisory authority against such a description. On DN Debate on 18 november, said director general Erik Thedéen to increased prices, not mortgage, play the greatest role. To support his case, compare Thedéen effects of increased rates with the effects of the additional requirements introduced in 2018. The comparison, however, cover the years 2012-2017, that is to say, a year before the extended amorteringskravet introduced. In other contexts it has Thedéen argued that only 14 percent of the younger households are affected.
such arguments can only be understood if you choose to ignore the aggregate effect of the various nor credit restrictions imposed. In order to assess the matter, we can set up a fictitious loan application and test it in the way that the bank makes in their so-called left-to-live-on calculus (KALP). The example below is based on the average cost for a 3:a of the Stockholm municipality, that is to say, the type of housing that is suitable for a familjebildande couple in the 30-35 years of age. This example shows that it plays a crucial role is the combination of average, which places demands on large savings, and the amount of the unreasonably high kalkylräntor and amortization, which sets requirements for the age group of high-income.
Link to the graphics
thus, It is the combined effect that must be assessed. According to a recent analysis from the Swedish construction federation can utestängningseffekten against the young and thinly capitalised households is estimated to be approximately 60% for cohabiting and about 80-90 per cent for single person households.
: Kreditrestriktionerna affect bostadsefterfrågan more negative than what transpired in the debate and affects particularly the young and first-time buyers.
A common assumption in the debate is that more rental properties are both a desirable and probable development of the demand for owned housing decreases. Veidekke has analyzed six different factors to assess the likelihood of an increase in construction of rental properties. Hardly any talk of such a development.
Demand for rental units falls right now, in principle, as much as for the condominiums and most of the municipalities (for example, Örebro, Växjö and Uppsala, sweden) as previously, through policy measures, increased the supply. The reason is that newly built dwellings have high rents and are an expensive form of housing. This affects the demand of the audiences, mainly the young and elderly, who mainly want a tenancy.
: the Market for new rental properties filled quickly. Together with the changing economic conditions affected the propensity to invest and, therefore, will the construction of rental housing continue to decline.
Construction requires funding. Here are the politicians faced with a choice. Either loosens up the implemented restrictions or so will sooner or later be forced to reintroduce a state housing finance.
The bostadssociala the challenge requires an increased transparency of the solutions successfully applied in other countries. It looks out towards our neighbours discover certainly that these introduced nor credit restrictions.
however, There is an important difference. With the exception of Lithuania, Sweden is one of the few countries that have introduced restrictions, but to allow specific solutions for younger and first-time buyers, in the form of higher mortgage ceiling, subsidized bosparande and launch loans. The sooner the Swedish politicians realize that this is the solution also for us, the more quickly will the housing crisis to be brought to a solution. If not, it will get worse.