The Swiss economy will not run in 2019, so, as a last. The Economists of the Federal government to join in the dancing to the experts, the lower their forecasts for the current year. This is explained by a depressed world economy.
The state Secretariat for economic Affairs (Seco) lowered on Thursday its forecast for the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) to only 1.1 per cent. In December, the had been prediction to plus 1.5 percent.
the reason is the state of the world economy. This loses accepted according to the Seco stronger momentum than before. The brake of the Swiss foreign trade and investment activities of the company. The Swiss economy has cooled down, in fact, already in the second half of the year 2018.
as a reminder: After a fall of 0.3 percent in the third quarter and a small increase of 0.2 percent in the last quarter of the year, the local economy is the rams just missed a (technical) recession is over.
From a technical recession in the speech is when two quarters have rates in a row of negative growth. Italy, for example, is in a and Germany, the main foreign trade partner of Switzerland, almost landed in a.
In good company
In the Wake of sluggish job development, at the same time of great uncertainty is to be expected according to the Economists of the Federal government now estimates that the company will invest in Switzerland in the next few quarters, are reluctant to their production capacities.
For the construction attributed to the Seco also with a low growth: The rise of empty should stand numbers, and the real estate prices tend to increase. Also from the consumption, no impulses are to be expected: This will rise, on average, although the decline in support at the end of Inflation, the real purchasing power of households. With its reassessment of the Seco is not alone. Two weeks ago, about the UBS Economists lowered their growth forecast for this year to 0.9 of 1.5 percent and Economists at the economic research Bureau BAK be expected to 1.1 instead of 1.2 percent. And observers agree that next week the Swiss national Bank (SNB) is lowering its Growth projections.
All risks
In the year 2020, the world economy should gain moderate momentum. In this tow, the local economy would grow by 1.7 per cent. On the labour market, the current slowdown is likely to manifest itself with a delay: The Seco expects for 2020 a rise in the unemployment rate, on an annual average 2.6 per cent of very low 2.4 per cent in the current year.
Seco can keep to its growth forecasts in December, but makes one condition: The international trade dispute shall not continue to increase. This will escalate, should the world economy and the world slows down trade stronger than assumed in the projections. Particular duties “in significant amount” on German cars would meet in Switzerland.
Ever prevail, according to the expert group, the downside risks for the world economy. In particular, it was open whether the Brexit will be completed by the end of March 2019, and how the relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom then. The economic and financial Situation of Italy, the mountains to the slide of the country into recession again, bigger risks come. (fal/sda)
Created: 14.03.2019, 11:56 PM
