Even if the government injects every month tens of billions of euros to try to save the economy habs, it will not avoid the inevitable: the multiplication of redundancies and social plans in enterprises that do not hold up to the most serious recession since the end of the Second world War. When France was confined in march, Emmanuel Macron had announced that”no business” would be delivered “at the risk of bankruptcy”. But here, in this phase of déconfinement progressive, the executive is now preparing the minds to the contrary. “There will be bankruptcies and there will be layoffs in the coming months” , has warned the minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, at the microphone of Europe 1 last week.

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For the time being, the wave of redundancies has not yet overwhelmed the French economy. From 1 march to 17 may, only 53 plans safeguarding of employment (PSE) or social plans – mandatory in companies with 50 employees and a minimum of 10 layoffs – have been initiated, for 2853 deletions of positions. The number of people registered at Pôle emploi has certainly increased from 7.1% in march, but this is mainly due to the non-renewal of the contracts short or postponements of the hires.

The lawyers sought

France seems to be so far untouched by the layoffs. And for good reason, the economy has recovered for two months in a form of lethargy largely maintained by the State. The executive has put on a drip more than a million companies, with its emergency plan of 110 billion euros that includes the very expensive device for partial unemployment. These actions, which are a burden for the public finances, have helped to prevent “a massive wave of layoffs” put forward at the end of April the minister of Labour, Muriel Pénicaud. But the worst was yet to come. Many people put off, and whose compensation was subsidized by public money – one employee in three in the private sector! – may now lose their jobs.

there will be layoffs, that’s for sure. But today, we can’t know the size

François Asselin, president of the CPME

“All the indicators show a fall in production very strong, cash very with and impact on employment. I fear that the redundancies in numbers are inevitable,” judge Raymond Soubie, chairman of the consulting firm human resources Alixio and former social adviser to Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysée palace. “There will be layoffs, that’s for sure. But today, we can’t know the magnitude,” confirms François Asselin, president of the CPME. However, employers do not have to wait a long time to turn to lawyers. “From the beginning of the confinement, of the companies I have sought to prepare social plans in the sectors most affected, such as restaurants and hotels,” says Isabelle Mathieu, an associate lawyer with at Daem Partners.

see also : The partial unemployment revised down from June.

The real blow could happen in the next few weeks, after the gradual decrease of the wing of the part-time unemployment in the sectors in which the activity was able to restart. “The most difficult phase is in front of us because it will take out all of the part-time unemployment. The State will continue to operate the device, but without maintaining the level of aid current. The shock will, therefore, be very strong on the business and on the employees,” judge Raymond Soubie. Little by little, the employers affected by the crisis will need to ensure financially the salaries and expenses of the business without regaining a normal level of activity.

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