The PP would obtain between 47 and 49 seats, six from the absolute majority, in the Andalusian elections on June 19, in which Vox would rise to between 21 and 23 deputies, and the left would remain in the 32 of the PSOE-A, the 5 from Por Andalucía (Podemos-IU) and the deputy who would achieve Adelante Andalucía. Ciudadanos would obtain between one and two (now it has 21), which would prevent it from forming a parliamentary group.
The PP-A would win the next Andalusian elections with 39.2% of the vote and an advantage of 15 points over the PSOE-A, which would obtain 24.2% of the vote.
The popular ones led by Juanma Moreno could add the absolute majority in the regional Parliament with Vox, which would double its current eleven deputies to reach 21 or 23, but not with Ciudadanos (Cs), its current partner in government, which would sink until losing 19 or 20 of its 21 current deputies and would fall to the fifth force, according to the barometer of the Andalusian Studies Center Foundation (Centra) carried out in May on the occasion of the next regional elections to be held on June 19.
The survey reflects that the PP-A and Vox would improve in votes compared to the December 2018 elections, obtaining 18.5 and 6.3% more, respectively, while the PSOE-A would lose 3.7% of votes compared to the last autonomous appointment, and Cs would fall by 13.5%.
According to this survey, Vox would obtain 17.3% of the votes, 12.5 points more than Cs, which would keep 4.8% of the votes, according to the same barometer, carried out between the past 3 and 13 days of this May to a sample of 4,500 people.
The poll attributes 6.6% of the votes to the Por Andalucía coalition, which brings together IU, Podemos, Más País, Verdes-Equo, the Andalusian People’s Initiative and the Green Alliance, while Adelante Andalucía, a confluence led by Teresa Rodríguez, would obtain 3.6% of the votes, reports Europa Press.
Translated into seats, this result would yield between 47 and 49 seats for the PP-A in the Andalusian Parliament, compared to the 26 it currently has, while the PSOE-A would obtain between 31 and 32 compared to its current 33.
For its part, Cs would go from third to fifth force in the Chamber by staying with one or two deputies, compared to the 21 achieved in December 2018, surpassed by Vox, which would obtain 21-23 seats, when in the last regional elections it won twelve parliamentarians -eleven in 2020 after the departure of the group of deputy Luz Belinda Rodríguez-, and by the coalition Por Andalucía, which would achieve five seats.
Behind these forces would be Adelante Andalucía, the coalition now led by Teresa Rodríguez, the brand with which Podemos and IU attended the 2018 regional elections, then achieving 17 parliamentarians. Now I could keep a deputy.
By virtue of the results of the Centra survey on vote estimation, the PP-A could add an absolute majority in Parliament, which stands at 55 seats, with Vox, a party with which it signed an investiture agreement, and with which it could reach between 68 and 72 deputies at the upper end of the bracket, while it could not be achieved only with Cs, with which the ‘popular’ would add between 48 and 51 seats.
This is the ninth survey of the Andalusian Barometer of the Center that places the PP-A as the most voted force in the regional elections after those published in July, October and December 2020; the months of April, July, October and December 2021, and that of April 2022, the latter poll giving it an 8.7 point advantage over the PSOE-A –6.3 points less than now–, that, on the other hand, in the barometers of June and December 2019, it continued to be the party with the highest vote estimate.
