“… you have all of the financing for a car, a mobile phone, a tv…”. With this claim, announcing in the radio CaixaBank a loan for consumption of up to 60,000 euros with conditions, valid until the 31 of December. The past month of November, El Corte Inglés launched for the first time a campaign of three days of interest free financing to advance the Christmas shopping and Black Friday by unifying in a single invoice lel expenditure in all departments. Are just two examples of how large retailers are trying to encourage sales for christmas in a campaign that presents with uncertainty: almost no one predicts falling sales, but the growth curves are moderated. Some emphasize the financing facilities to boost the period largest sales of the year while the Bank of Spain warning of the warming of the consumer credit.
“there Is more caution in the consumer that the past year”, says Bruno Rodríguez, partner, Consumer Goods and Distribution consulting firm Deloitte, and aims at the “impact of political and economic instability in the spending of christmas”. Refers to the economic slowdown that has started to be seen and to the uncertain political situation in the country, with municipal elections and european -and perhaps, general – is on the horizon and with the bitter aftertaste left by the andalusian. In this scenario, consumer confidence is low: in November, the latest data published by the CIS, the index stood at 91,4 points, and 9.1 points lower than a year before. Fall close to 10% a year its two components, the perception of the current situation and expectations for the future, plagued by economic concerns.
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With “suspicion, fear, and, at the same time, hope,” faces of the campaign, for its part, the small trade, according to Manuel García-Izquierdo, president of your employer, CEC, which also points to the tumultuous political landscape-economic. Trust, however, in the attachment of the Spanish to the christmas holidays to meet expectations and that “December adecentará the data of a year that has not been good for trade.” The index of retail trade has renqueado good part of the year, especially in the small stores, which in October was chained for nine consecutive months of declines.
it has Not been so bad in the big stores and chains, as it says in the index and confirm sources of ANGED, the association that brings them all together. Even so, do not throw the bells to the flight. “The Christmas campaign will be positive, with a growth between 1.5% and 2% compared to last year,” they said. One of the members of this employers, The English Court, you see it with more optimism after a Black Friday better than expected.
In part, the good result of black Friday was due, sources say the department store, the “campaign Finance 0,0”, three days in Mariobet which the card holders were able to group all of your purchases in all departments and support them in up to 12 months without interest. “It was a wink, a timely action in order to encourage and boost the sales”, explained sources from the company. This initiative will add a further, as the Anticipation of Christmas, a line of credit for holiday shopping that is done for the fifth year and in 2017 grew 11%. Other chains, like Worten or Fnac are in addition to these initiatives, and offer such financing facilities to encourage the campaign (deferred payment, deletion of interest, etc).
“the companies in The sector to intensify their efforts to make this a good christmas campaign,” in a situation of less consumer confidence and a loss of purchasing power of families, to grow more than inflation, the disposable income, says Javier Campo, president of AECOC, which brings together manufacturers and distributors of products of great consumption.
The inertia in the employment starts to lose its bellows
While the forecasts of sales give signs of exhaustion, the employment associated with the Christmas campaign is still showing a positive inertia, albeit at a lower pace than in previous years. The forecasts of the two big companies of temporary work, Randstad and Adecco, as well as show. The first augurs 406.000 recruitment in the campaign, which runs from Black Friday to the end of January, 8.3% more than in 2017. While it is a remarkable growth, is the rate of increase is the lowest of the last three years. The same happens with the estimates of Adecco, which calculates a million contracts, up 4.5% from a year ago, but also far from the rates of double-digit, 2017 and 2016.
The own distribution companies, through their financial, banks, credit-as the above-mentioned Shares, or the card users make use of the credit to rejoice the Christmas. While the use of the funding is not new, according to Bankinter Consumer Finance, a subsidiary of financing the consumption of the entity, holders of credit cards (with the payment method that each one you have hired) will spend an average of 430,18 euros, five euros more than last year. However, added sources of the bank during the week of Black Friday, the spending with a credit card increased by 15.3% compared to the same week in 2017. Also the study of commerce christmas of Deloitte recorded a slight increase in the use of the credit card.
at the time, the warnings of the Bank of Spain, the warming of the consumer credit and the increases in delinquencies are not having much of an echo. The banks are pulling this type of loan because, in times of low interest rates, it gives a good profitability-in Spain the interests of these credits are about 7.8%, compared to 4.9% of the euro zone, according to the supervisor. In its latest stability report, picked up a growth of above 20% in recent quarters, on all of the loans granted for the purchase of durable consumer goods. Thus, alerting him to the increase of the poison, although not yet reflected in an increased rate of delinquencies, which tends to appear later, and it encouraged banks and other credit institutions to “remain vigilant”, not “relax” the licensing conditions and to make provisions “for these most profitable investments do not end up becoming the most risky”.
