Has French growth withstood headwinds better than expected thanks to a ship? In constant decline since the second quarter of 2022, France’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased significantly in the second quarter (0.5% in volume, after 0.1% in the previous quarter), according to figures. from INSEE published at the end of July. Good results which can be explained in particular by a dynamic foreign trade. In fact, exports rebounded this quarter (2.6% after -0.8%), as well as imports, to a lesser extent (0.4% after -2.0%).
And, according to national statisticians, this jump in trade has been driven, in particular, by “the delivery of a liner” over the last three months. An observation that aroused the astonishment of Internet users: “Here is the French GDP in the second quarter”, wrote, with irony, a commentator, on Twitter. And to add: “Export brings life”.
The INSEE publication mentions the delivery of the MSC Euribia, a 331-meter-long cruise ship built in the Chantiers de l’Atlantique, in Saint-Nazaire. But can a single export, no matter how large, be such a game-changer? The reality is a little more complicated than that, answer the statisticians. At the time of delivery of this liner to the Italian-Swiss shipowner MSC Croisières, there was certainly a significant export, but also a decrease in stock in the French figures. However, “in national accounting, the contribution to GDP from this activity goes through production, which is recorded gradually over the entire duration of the project (which lasted around 2 years, editor’s note), and has as its contribution a gradual increase in stock” , it says. And as this type of vessel is expensive, estimated at more than one billion euros (i.e. 0.2 point of quarterly GDP), “this export/decrease in stock has a strong effect at the time of delivery on the breakdown of growth, but relatively little on growth itself,” explains INSEE.
Concretely, the good figures for this second quarter “are therefore explained more by the dynamism of production, both industrial and services, than by this story of the liner”, we qualify at the Institute. In addition, the Chantiers de l’Atlantique “contribute to growth by increasing their rate of production in volume, that is to say by building larger ships faster, but it is a very gradual process. and smoother than these delivery movements”. It is therefore not entirely possible to correlate this delivery, at the beginning of June, with the good figures published at the end of July. Finally, INSEE considers “not to publish data at a sufficiently detailed level (in particular on added value) to precisely quantify this effect”.
The fact remains that the MSC Euribia, named in honor of Eurybia, divinity of the oceans in Greek mythology known for having mastered the winds, the meteorology and the constellations to control the sea, is officially commissioned. 331 meters long and 43 meters wide, this behemoth of the seas will carry up to 6,327 travelers and 1,711 crew members. Its first trip will take place in a few days, at the end of August, on the waters of northern Europe, between France, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands. It will quickly have little brothers: three other liners of its stature should leave the Chantiers de l’Atlantique in 2024, 2025 and 2027. What smooth over several years the dynamism of the production of the one who has become one of the world leaders builders of the largest passenger ships, with more than 150 ships delivered since its creation.
