“We are on the verge of further price reductions.” In the government, we are starting to breathe. After a long period of galloping inflation, prices have been stabilizing for a few months. Some food products (Danone yoghurts, Panzani pasta, Coca-Cola Without Sugar, to name but a few) even saw their labels lighten up this summer in supermarkets, after around forty manufacturers agreed to “make an effort” on around 1,000 references, as announced in mid-July by the Minister for SMEs and Trade, Olivia Grégoire. Drops that will continue at the start of the school year in certain departments, to the great satisfaction of an executive put under pressure by the latest inflationary tensions.
“Among the categories where we can expect to see prices fall, there are all the categories in which cereals were the source of strong inflation”, anticipates Emmanuel Fournet, analytical director at NielsenIQ. The prices of cereals, in particular wheat, have indeed been in decline for several months, after having exploded at the time of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in early 2022. “The price of a tonne of wheat is half higher than at the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine”, underlines the specialist in large distribution Olivier Dauvers.
This phenomenon should pull the price of pasta down further, already on a downward slope (-0.1% mid-July over one month, according to NielsenIQ). In Lidl stores, the drop should be “around 5 to 10%”, said Michel Biero, executive director of purchasing and marketing for the brand, last week on RMC. Pasta should be joined in this downward momentum by bread, pastries, flour, and even breakfast cereals.
Biscuits could also see their price decrease at the start of the school year. More references of savory biscuits for aperitifs than biscuits consumed as snacks could be concerned. The fault lies in the price of sugar, which does not calm down, just like the price of cocoa. This does not prevent certain sweet products from still being able to fall at the start of the school year. “It’s all a question of proportions in the composition of the products”, we explain to Olivia Grégoire’s office. Like wheat, the price of coffee on the markets is also falling, and this could therefore have repercussions on the shelves – roasted coffee has already fallen by 0.1% on the shelves in mid-July over one month according to NielsenIQ.
In the meat and charcuterie department, poultry products – whose prices are already falling – should also benefit from the lull in the cereal market, the basis of food for these animals. This will not be the case for pork, the price of which remains high due to the difficulties encountered by the sector. The prices of pork products even “tend to increase”, we observe in the entourage of Olivia Grégoire. Food for dogs or cats could also be affected by price cuts at the start of the school year, according to NielsenIQ.
From there to anticipating a “green September” on supermarket shelves, there is a step. Which distributors are reluctant to cross, no doubt so as not to raise excessive expectations from their customers. “At Lidl, we are going to lower the prices. But I don’t want to talk about Green September. It will be pale green, not red”, estimated Michel Biero on RMC, in the same vein as his comments made on RTL at the end of July. There will be no significant reductions, except “a few cents” of euros on certain products, he had hammered. His colleague Michel-Édouard Leclerc takes fewer gloves: “There will be no green September. There will be no massive drop in prices”, launched on Europe 1 the historic boss of the E.Leclerc centers at the end of July.
“In general, prices will certainly fall, but slightly, we will not return to the prices that consumers experienced at the start of 2022, warns Emmanuel Fournet, of the NielsenIQ panelist. Manufacturers have often bought their raw materials or paid for their energy at prices dating back several months. So it takes time to set up.” The reductions mentioned are therefore expected to be modest for the time being. We will probably have to wait until next March, the traditional period of annual trade negotiations between manufacturers and distributors, for them to be more marked.
In addition, some products could continue to see their label swell this fall. Like olive oil, victim of the drought in Europe, and which is not immune to a shortage next fall. A lack of availability which should mechanically raise prices. This drought could also push up the prices of certain fruits, whose harvests are damaged by the summer weather, according to NielsenIQ. Finally, orange juice could continue to rise, victim in particular of the collapse of orange production in Florida, ravaged by the passage of hurricanes Nicole and Ian in the fall of 2022 and affected by the so-called yellow dragon disease. . The turbulence is still far from over for consumers on the shelves of supermarkets.
