The OECD raised its global growth forecast for 2023 on Wednesday, but the lull on the inflation front and the restarting of the Chinese economy do not prevent the world economy from facing a “long road” before a lasting recovery, she warns. Global growth is expected this year at 2.7% by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), slightly better than the 2.6% envisaged in its previous forecasts in March. At 2.9%, on the other hand, the global growth expected for 2024 remains unchanged, according to the report of the international institution published on Wednesday, on the occasion of an annual ministerial meeting organized at the Paris headquarters of the OECD.
“The world economy is taking a turn,” commented Clare Lombardelli, newly appointed chief economist of the institution, in the preamble to the report. The economy is benefiting from a lull in inflation, which exploded last year due to soaring energy and food prices caused by the war in Ukraine. The recent recovery of the Chinese economy, after its draconian zero-Covid policy, also brings oxygen to the world economy, underlines the OECD. Chinese growth is expected this year at 5.4%, an increase of 0.1 point compared to March forecasts, and 5.1% next year (0.2 point).
Despite these positive signs, the world economy “faces a long road to travel before achieving strong and sustainable growth”, tempered Briton Clare Lombardelli, who took up her post at the OECD almost a year ago. after the departure of Laurence Boone to the French government. Among the challenges mentioned is the persistence of inflation excluding energy and food which “remains stubbornly high” and which requires central banks to “maintain restrictive monetary policies until there are clear signs” of easing. , notes Clare Lombardelli. However, high interest rates prevent the world economy from growing more frankly, by reducing the distribution of credit and encouraging savings rather than consumption.
And, by increasing borrowing costs, interest rate hikes also weigh heavily on the public finances of States, which have been seriously degraded by the latest international crises. “Almost all countries have higher deficits and debt than before the pandemic, and many are facing growing pressures on public spending linked to aging populations, climate transition and the burden of the cost of debt” , notes the OECD in its report which encourages States to target their budgetary support measures more.