Certain packets of cigarettes, such as Malboro Red, could cross the threshold of 12 euros at the start of 2024. The cause is a price increase of between 40 and 50 cents which could occur as early as January 1, according to information from Les Échos. If the government had promised in September not to increase tobacco taxes next year, the executive however has other levers.
Last year, Parliament voted to change tobacco taxation based on inflation. If it was calculated based on year N-2, it is now calculated from year N-1, which has caused the price of the package to soar, from 8 to 11 euros in five years. Added to this is the removal of the 1.75% ceiling which limited the increase in taxes. Result, an average price of the package which amounted to 11.13 euros in June 2023.
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If we refer to the calculation for year N-1, tobacco prices should therefore be based on inflation of 4.7% for 2023. And nothing obliges manufacturers to contain this future increase, as the underlines to Échos Romain Laroche, director of the National Company for the Industrial Exploitation of Tobacco and Matches (Seita): “if they do not want to absorb the tax increase on their margins and pass it all on to consumers, the increase of a packet for 11 euros should be 43 cents.” For its part, the confederation of tobacconists expects an increase in the price of tobacco of 40 to 50 cents. The final price will be published in December by the executive.
These price increases are still far from over. The government had already warned that the increases would be progressive, to reach a package around “13 euros at the end of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term”, Thomas Cazenave announced on Sud Radio. The authorities now fear that the 12 million French smokers will turn to contraband cigarettes, which are even more harmful to their health.
