yle of the data according to the calculations of the Finnish carbon sinks has changed substantially even in the spring of the estimated. In the government parties to see that the change does not at least make the decision makers work for carbon neutrality to be achieved by 2035.
It is a resource centre Luke from doing the calculation, which has calculated carbon sinks change in the future. Luke has updated the previous calculations, and preliminary data released on Friday.
a carbon-neutral means that in 2035, Finland no longer burdens the atmosphere, while the sinks, the largest of them, the forests would bind carbon to the same amount as it enters the air from various emission sources.
on Friday can also be one of the first estimates, what reduction in emissions could cost the national economy. Then published in the government space by scenarios, where research institutes are the VTT technical research centre, under the leadership evaluated the possible ways to achieve carbon neutrality for the.
Also, the researchers used emissions reduction models are startled by the parties, when the matter is presented to them provisionally the government’s energy and climate policy ministerial working group. In the group are represented in all the government parties: the SDP, the centre, the greens, the left alliance and the Swedish people’s party.
Natural resources institute calculations really big change
Yle is received from various sources preliminary information on luke the carbon sink calculation and VTT future scenarios. The data are based on yle’s bye-bye second-hand sources.
Luke in the previous assessment (switch to another service) in 2035 throat size was about 35 Mt co2. In a recent, still unpublished estimate in the figure is Excessive data, only 17.9 Mt co2 .
the unit of Measure is tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which means the carbon dioxide-modified greenhouse gases. In 2035 a carbon sink to tie your so to 17.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent amount of greenhouse gases.
Earlier, Luke also estimates that by 2050, the pharynx should be around 50 Mt co2, but now the figure has dropped to 25.6 per.
for Comparison, luke’s assessment of the current pharynx magnitude is now 23.5 Mt co2. Yet in the spring, Luke estimates that in 2020 the sinks would be bound to 30.8 million tons of greenhouse gases.
the Sinks are calculations and their impact, for example, assumptions on forest growth, forest logging and plantations. What the farther future will anticipate, the more uncertain the calculations used.
Luke to explain the surprise: Background material changed to
Nielulaskelman change was the party for surprise. Luke’s calculations have lived in the past, but this transformation will amaze both politicians and researchers alike.
scientists and politicians are waiting for Luke to tell on Friday, where the calculations of the radical change is due.
Luke spring scenarios carbon sink seemed to keep growing in future, even if the logging should be added. Now the direction is another: if logging is added, the pharynx is reduced.
the Party also suspected, can the calculations generally rely on, if the throws are of this magnitude.
Yle asked Luke, where the new, still preliminary calculations changes from the previous compared to the due.
– the New calculation is based on the most recent measured forest resource data and slash the model is updated, luke’s research director general Antti Asikainen said.
the most Recent is Asikainen according to the been used in years 2013-2017 the forest inventory data. Previous calculations based on 2009 to 2013 data.
in the last Few years the Finnish forests have been beaten a lot, which has reduced forest carbon stocks.
VTT preliminary scenarios: radical emission cuts
the Government does not yet have a plan on how carbon neutrality is reached in 2035. Employment and the economy ministry jointly with the industry roadmap for how the emissions can be reduced.
the ministry of Transport again has begun to plan how to transport, made of “low carbon”. In January the government intends to sit to the table thinking about emission reductions in earnest.
the reduction of Emissions the way should be clear about the year 2021, when the government is through the mid.
VTT sketched in the spring, how Finland could get to carbon neutral by 2050. Only together with the scientists to do the four future image of Finland should emissions and sinks balance in the years 2030-2040.
Lasse Isokangas / Yle
Antti Rinne (sd.) the government decided to tighten the carbon neutrality goal.
the researchers are put together at breakneck speed in two scenarios, how Finland could become a carbon-neutral already in 2035. Emission reductions should be achieved in a tight timeframe. 15 years in the sinks in the increasing you can’t count on as much and the technical development can solve problems so much as in the longer term.
Soon to be completed in skenaariohin familiar with the researcher estimates that the yet unpublished scenario of proposals to reduce emissions as are radical precisely because the sinks are the previous outlook, compared with declined so much.
in the spring Already published, in the year 2050 range visible emissions reductions would have required a big social change. For example, eating meat was assumed to decrease appreciably, and carbon capture and storage was one of the means of emissions control in order to qualify.
however, there are still many points to tighter change of front, when emission reductions must take place only in 15 years: industry should renew their equipment more quickly, the traffic should soon move away from crude oil to refined fuels.
a Very accurate calculation of carbon emissions can not do. It is influenced by how technology is developing, how do consumers change their behavior and what politicians decide.
in Agriculture, be prepared for big changes
Finland’s current carbon emissions the majority of energy sector. Emissions will become rich also from agricultural and industrial processes.
the energy sector within the emissions the biggest part of the energy production and domestic traffic.
yle of the data, according to researchers fresh scenarios, for example, agriculture would be a big change. If consumers would like to climate reasons to reduce meat eating, agriculture is not produced anymore so much beef and pork but for example oats and vegetable proteins. This would reduce emissions.
the Government intends to reduce the emissions from different emission sources. The highest emissions comes from the energy sector, the second highest in agriculture.Tommi Parkkinen / Yle
again, If the meat would be eaten and would be produced as before, emissions should be reduced elsewhere.
Also, the climate panel has estimated that the emission cuts have to tighten, if the government intends to get to their goals. Panel on climate change, according to the achievement of the objective is possible.
VTT’s leadership in the calculations is now for the first time estimated also, what the emissions reduction target would cost the national economy.
the Parties, however, recall that the scenarios are not political programs. They are only intended to help decision-making.
in General the emission reductions of the logic is that the cuts will be easier to achieve where päästöjäkin is a lot. The government parties think of at the moment, that emissions should be cut every sector.
see also:
the Natural resources institute to expose: climate calculations of forest logging are not true – is Not any promise that Finland could beat more than 80 million cubic meters of the forest
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