They appear to be on the verge of reaching a deal that would allow the U.S. to return into the agreement and force Iran into compliance with its nuclear program limits.
After eleven months of ongoing talks in Vienna officials from the United States and others have indicated that only a small number of issues are still to be resolved. Russia seems to have given up on its threat to cancel an agreement regarding Ukraine-related sanctions, which had hampered prospects of a quick deal.
This leaves Washington and Tehran as the only ones who can reach an agreement, or at most a principled agreement. As has been the case often, Iran and the U.S. insist that these decisions must be made jointly. This leaves a limbo situation even though all parties agree the matter must be resolved quickly.
Ned Price, a spokesperson for the State Department, stated Wednesday that “we are close to a potential deal”, but they’re not there yet. “We will soon find out if we can get there,” Ned Price said Wednesday.
Christofer Burger, a spokesperson for the German Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that work on drafting a final document was complete and that “the necessary political decisions now must be made in capitals.”
He said, “We hope these negotiations can now be quickly completed.”
Since its inception, the Biden administration has made it a priority to enter the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (or JCPOA) deal.
The accord was once a landmark foreign policy achievement of Obama’s administration. Vice President Joe Biden was involved in the negotiation. However, Donald Trump resigned in 2018. He called it the worst deal ever negotiated, and set about expanding the U.S. sanctions that had already been lifted.
Biden’s administration claims that Iran’s current threat would be even more serious if it had a nuclear weapon. Most, but not all, of the deal opponents are Republicans. They claim that the original deal allowed Iran to develop a nuclear weapon by removing certain restrictions under “sunset clauses.” These clauses required that certain restrictions be gradually lifted.
The weekend saw both sides intensify their arguments when Iran launched missile strikes near the U.S. consulate compound, targeting the northern Iraqi city Irbil. Critics said that Iran’s attack proved they cannot be trusted and should not receive any sanctions relief. The administration said that Iran will be more at risk if it gets a nuclear weapon.
Price stated that Iran is a threat to allies and partners in many cases, as well as the United States across a variety of domains. A nuclear-armed Iran, or one that is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon, would be our greatest challenge.
A new hope of progress was seen Wednesday as Iran released two British citizens. The U.S. withdrew in 2018 from the nuclear agreement, and the three European countries which are still parties to it, had stated that an agreement would prove difficult, if not impossible, while these prisoners, as well as several American citizens, are held in Iran.
Price stated Tuesday that if the prisoner issue is resolved, then the gaps in the nuke negotiations could be close quickly. This would be assuming Iran makes the decision to recommit to nuclear compliance.
Price stated that “we do believe that we would have the ability to close those gaps, and to close that remaining distance, if there were decisions made in capitals including Tehran.”
Hossein Amirabdolahian, Iran’s Foreign Minister, said that a deal is dependent entirely on Washington.
After meeting with Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, he stated that “More than ever (the) ball was in the U.S. court” and added that the U.S. is now ready to respond to the demands for a successful conclusion of the talks. Amirabdolahian stated that he was “reassured” by Russia’s support for the Vienna final agreement.
Lavrov stated that negotiations are in the “home stretch” of negotiations and suggested that Russian objections to potential spillover from Ukraine-related sanctions into Moscow’s possible activities with Tehran under a new nuke deal had been overcome.
He stated that the agreement being considered would remove these activities, which the U.S. has not denied. However, he also said that the Russians should have been aware of the terms from the beginning.
Price stated that Russia would not be allowed to participate in any nuclear projects that were part of the (deal). “We cannot and won’t, and we haven’t provided any assurances to Russia beyond that.”
He stated that the U.S. would not permit Russia to ignore Ukraine-related sanctions through money and other assets flowing through Iran. A deal with Russia “is not going be an escape hatch to the Russian Federation or the sanctions that have imposed upon it due to the war in Ukraine.”
Critics of the deal are skeptical that Russia will not at least attempt to evade Ukraine sanctions when dealings with Iran. They have also warned that possible sanctions-busting could be one reason they oppose a new deal.
All 50 Republicans in Congress signed a joint statement earlier this week, vowing to end any agreement with Iran. This includes any time limitations on advanced nuclear work or other issues.
Although the GOP will not be able stop a deal right now, it could have majorities in both chambers of Congress following November’s midterm elections. This would make it more difficult for the administration not to accept any agreement that has been reached.
One concern expressed by deal critics is that Iran will be able to receive sanctions relief if the Biden administration complies with the agreement. Iran is demanding that the Trump administration remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s designation as a “foreign terror organization”
The U.S. refused to accept this, and barred Iran from making commitments to end funding and arming extremist groups throughout the region and elsewhere. Washington is very interested in this matter, not least because of the IRGC’s credible threats against former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as well as Brian Hook, Trump’s Iran envoy.
